Uyun, Eka Miyahil (2018) Peramalan Harga Pasar Telur Ayam Ras di Kota Malang dengan Menggunakan Metode "Fuzzy Time Series-GA. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Kesadaran masyarakat Kota Malang akan konsumsi protein hewani semakin meningkat seiring dengan naiknya tingkat pertumbuhan peduduk dan taraf hidup masyarakat. Telur ayam ras menjadi salah satu sumber protein hewani yang digemari karena harganya yang murah. Akan tetapi, harga telur ayam ras di pasar bersifat fluktuatif, sehingga berdampak pada jumlah permintaan telur. Oleh karena itu, pada penelitian ini dibuat sebuah sistem yang dapat memproyeksikan kondisi pasar untuk mengetahui harga pasar telur ayam ras pada periode berikutnya. Data yang digunakan merupakan data harian rata-rata harga telur ayam ras di Kota Malang pada periode 2012-2017. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series untuk peramalan dengan GA untuk mencari nilai optimal interval sub-sub himpunan fuzzy. Sub-sub himpunan fuzzy direpresentasikan oleh kromosom dengan pengkodean real code value, kemudian akan diproses oleh crossover, mutasi dan seleksi. Teknik crossover, mutasi dan seleksi yang digunakan adalah one-cut-point crossover, uniform mutation dan elitism selection. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian, parameter optimal yang didapatkan berupa ukuran populasi sebesar 40, panjang kromosom sebesar 25, kombinasi crossover dan mutation rate sebesar 0,4 dan 0,5, serta jumlah iterasi sebesar 500. Hasil yang didapat dengan menerapkan parameter-parameter optimal menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series-GA berkerja lebih balk dibandingkan dengan Fuzzy Time Series . MAPE terbaik yang didapatkan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series-GA sebesar 1,3347731
English Abstract
Awareness of Malang City's people to the consumption of animal protein increased as with the increase level of population growth and living standard. Purebred chicken eggs become one of the preferred animal protein foods because of its cheap price. However, the price of purebred chicken eggs in the market is fluctuating, thus affecting the number of egg demand. Therefore, in this research, a system that can project market conditions is made to determine the market price of purebred chicken in thext period. The data used is the average daily data of the price of purebred chicken eggs in Malang from 2012-2017. This research uses Fuzzy Time Series method for forecasting with GA to find optimal interval value of the fuzzy subsets. The fuzzy subsets are represented by chromosomes with real code value encoding, then they are processed by crossovers, mutations and selection. The crossover, mutation and selection techniques used are one-cut-point crossover, uniform mutation and elitism selection. Based on the test results, the optimal parameters obtained are the population size is 40, chromosome length is 25, the combination of crossover and mutation rate are 0,4 and 0,5, and the number of iterations is 500. The results obtained by applying the optimal parameters indicate that the Fuzzy Time Series-GA method works better than the Fuzzy Time Series. The best MAPE obtained using the Fuzzy Time Series-GA method is 1,3347731.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FTIK/2018/544/051808388 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | peramalan, telur ayam ras, harga, Fuzzy Time Series, Genetic Algorithm, dan MAPE forecasting, purebred chicken eggs, price, Fuzzy Time Series, Genetic Algorithm, and MAPE |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 636 Animal husbandry > 636.5 Chickens and other kinds of domestic birds > 636.51 Poultry for specific purposes > 636.514 2 Eggs / Birds--Eggs / Birds--Nests / Eggs--Production |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Teknik Informatika |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 06 May 2019 01:42 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2021 02:51 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/162039 |
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