Hisyam, Farizky (2017) Analisis Kejadian Gempa Bumi Di Jawa Timur Tahun 1960 – 2017 Dengan Model Rantai Markov. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Telah dilakukan analisis kejadian gempa bumi di Jawa Timur dengan menggunakan model rantai Markov. Jawa Timur merupakan wilayah dengan aktivitas kegempaan tinggi yang berasal dari aktivitas subduksi dan sesar darat. Dibandingkan dengan model stokastik lainnya, rantai Markov mampu menganalisis urut-urutan kejadian gempa bumi di suatu wilayah dengan tingkat kegempaan tinggi. Data yang digunakan adalah katalog gempa di Jawa Timur dan sekitarnya tahun 1960 – 2017. Data diklasifikasikan menjadi gempa subduksi dan gempa sesar darat. Data gempa didekluster dengan algoritma Reasenberg (1985) untuk menghilangkan gempa susulan. Analisis secara spasial dilakukan dengan membagi wilayah penelitian ke dalam 9 region. Matriks probabilitas transisi yang memberikan informasi probabilitas transisi terbesar kejadian gempa di setiap regionnya dihitung untuk batas magnitudo yang berbeda. Selanjutnya, uji Chi Kuadrat dilakukan untuk melakukan uji independensi antarkejadian gempa. Analisis secara magnitudo dilakukan dengan menentukan 3 keadaan magnitudo untuk gempa kecil, moderat, dan besar. Dalam upaya analisis bahaya kegempaan maka analisis rantai Markov dilakukan secara temporal dengan menentukan periode aktif (1) dan inaktif (0) di setiap region berdasarkan kejadian gempa 5 dan kedalaman 70 km di setiap interval waktu yang telah ditentukan. Dari probabilitas transisi dua keadaan ini dapat ditentukan durasi rata-rata periode aktif dan inaktif di setiap region. Secara spasial dan magnitudo, kejadian gempa subduksi 4 dan 5 serta gempa sesar darat 3 di wilayah penelitian menunjukkan sifat rantai Markov orde pertama dengan kuat. Secara temporal durasi rata-rata periode inaktif di wilayah penelitian bervariasi dari 2,5 – 13,5 tahun. Hasil analisis ini dapat digunakan dalam
English Abstract
Earthquake occurrence in East Java has been analyzed using Markov chain model. East Java is one of region prone to high seismicity associated with subduction and inland fault activities. Compared with another stochastic models, Markov chain enables to analyze earthquake occurrence sequence in a high seismicity region. The used catalog data comprised of earthquake events from East Java and its vicinity for the time interval 1960 until 2017. Data were classified into subduction earthquake and inland fault earthquake. Thereafter, the data were declustered using Reasenberg (1985) algorithm for removing the aftershock. Spatial analysis was conducted by dividing the research area into 9 regions. Transition probability matrixes which give information about the highest transition probability of earthquake occurrence in each region were calculated for different magnitude thresholds. Furthermore, Chi Square test has been applied in order to examine the independence between earthquakes occurrence. Magnitude analysis was carried by considering 3 states of magnitude (small, moderate, and large earthquake). For seismic hazard analysis purpose, the temporal Markov chain analysis has been employed by determining the active (1) and inactive (0) period in each region based on the occurrence of earthquake with 5 and depth 70 km. From the two state probability transition, the mean duration of active and inactive periods in each region have been obtained. Both spatial and magnitude analysis results inferred that subduction earthquake with 4, 5, and inland fault earthquake with 3 exhibited strong first order Markov property, i.e. there was a robust dependency between an earthquake occurrence and the successive occurrence. The mean duration of inactive period in research area varied from 2.5 until 13.5 years. Thus, these analysis results were very useful in assessing the seismic hazard in East Java.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FMIPA/2017/536/051800383 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Rantai Markov, Kejadian Gempa, Jawa Timur, 1960 – 2017, Spasial, Magnitudo, Temporal, Markov Chain, East Java, Earthquake Occurrence, 1960 – 2017, Spatial, Magnitude, Temporal. |
| Subjects: | 500 Natural sciences and mathematics > 551 Geology, hydrology, meteorology > 551.2 Volcanoes, earthquakes, thermal waters and gases > 551.22 Earthquakes > 551.220 151 Earthquakes (Mathematics) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Fisika |
| Depositing User: | Nur Cholis |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Feb 2018 07:37 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Oct 2021 05:16 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/8705 |
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