Agustin, Harisatul (2018) Pengaruh Macroeconomic Dan Economic Activity Asean Terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia (Studi pada Negara Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina dan Brunei Darussalam Tahun 2014-2016). Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Pada tahun 2015 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) diciptakan guna menjalankan fungsi transformasi dan integrasi ekonomi ASEAN yang didasarkan pada aspek economic activity di sepuluh negara anggota ASEAN. Adanya AEC mendorong masing-masing negara untuk selalu meningkatkan economic activity-nya guna memenangkan pasar. Integrasi ekonomi pada negara-negara ASEAN dinilai akan memengaruhi ekonomi negara lainnya. Salah satu faktor yang dapat dijadikan tolok ukur kemajuan ekonomi suatu negara adalah pasar modal dan industri sekuritas di dalamnya. Peran industri sekuritas cukup krusial mengingat salah satu fungsinya adalah untuk menyalurkan dana dari pihak yang memiliki kelebihan dana (investor) kepada pihak yang kekurangan dana untuk dihimpun sebagai salah satu sumber pendanaan nasional. Investor akan selalu memperhatikan Indeks Harga Saham di suatu bursa ketika akan melakukan investasi. Oleh sebab itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan merupakan trend pasar yang akan menggambarkan kualitas dan kecenderungan suatu harga saham. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh macroeconomic dan economic activity negara-negara ASEAN terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian tersebut akan memberikan gambaran apakah Kinerja IHSG Indonesia dapat dipengarui oleh faktor ekonomi negara-negara ASEAN lain pada waktu menjelang dan setelah dilaksanakannya ASEAN Economic Community. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah explanatory research. Lokasi penelitian dilakukan di lima negara sampel yang telah dipilih sesuai dengan kriteria pengambilan sampel (purposive sampling), yaitu lima negara dengan tingkat economic activity (export-import) terhadap Indonesia paling tinggi. Kelima negara tersebut adalah Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, dan Brunei Darussalam. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder mengenai interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, export, dan import bulanan masing-masing negara sampel. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah metode Partial Least Square (smartPLS 3.2.7). Uji pada Partial Least Square merupakan analisis jalur dengan variabel laten. Uji pada Partial Least Square ini didasarkan pada evaluasi outer model dan inner model. Outer model merupakan model yang terdiri dari pengaruh antara variabel laten dan indikator. Inner model merupakan model yang terdiri dari pengaruh antara variabel laten. Pengujian hipotesis menggunakan hasil t-statistic pada hasil coefficient path pada uji bootstrapping. Hasil penelitian pada negara Singapura menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic vii Singapura tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity Singapura tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian pada negara Malaysia menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic Malaysia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity Malaysia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian pada negara Thailand menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic tidak berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic Thailand berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity Thailand tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian pada negara Filipina menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic tidak berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic Filipina tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity Filipina tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian pada negara Brunei Darussalam menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic Brunei Darussalam tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity Brunei Darussalam tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia. Hasil penelitian pada ASEAN secara keseluruhan menunjukkan bahwa macroeconomic berpengaruh terhadap economic activity. Macroeconomic ASEAN berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, dan economic activity ASEAN tidak berpengaruh terhadap Kinerja IHSG Indonesia.
English Abstract
In 2015 the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was created to carry out the ASEAN economic integration function based on economic activity aspect in the ten ASEAN member countries. The existence of AEC encourages each country to always improve its economic activity to win the market. Economic integration in ASEAN countries is considered to affect other countries's economies. One of the factors that can be used as a benchmark for the economic performance of a country is the capital market and the securities industry in it. The role of the securities industry is quite crucial considering that one of its functions is to distribute funds from those who have excess funds (investors) to those who have lack of funds to collected as one of the national funding sources. Investors will always pay attention to the Stock Price Index when they will make an investment. Therefore, the Composite Stock Price Index is a capital market trend that will describe the quality and tendency of a stock price. The purpose of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic and economic activity of ASEAN countries on the performance of IHSG Indonesia. The results of this study will provide an overview of whether the performance of Indonesia Composite Index can be influenced by economic factors of other ASEAN countries at the time before and after the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community. The type of research used is explanatory research. The location of the research is conducted in five sample countries that have been selected in accordance with the criteria of purposive sampling, they are five countries with the highest total of economic activity (export-import) to Indonesia. The five countries are Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Brunei Darussalam. The data used are secondary data on monthly report of interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, export, and import of each sample country. Data analysis technique used is Partial Least Square method (smartPLS 3.2.7). Partial Least Square is a path analysis with latent variables. Test on Partial Least Square is based on outer model evaluation and inner model. Outer model is a model that consists of the relationship between latent variables and indicators. Inner model is a model consisting of the relationship between latent variables. Hypothesis testing uses t-statistic result on coefficient path result in bootstrapping test. The results of research in Singapore conclude that macroeconomic effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic Singapore does not affect the performance ix of IHSG Indonesia, and Singapore's economic activity does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia. The results of research on Malaysia conclude that macroeconomic effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic Malaysia does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia, and Malaysia's economic activity does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia. The results of the study in Thailand showed that macroeconomic has no effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic Thailand has an effect on the performance of IHSG Indonesia, and Thailand economic activity does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia. The results of the study in the Philippines showed that macroeconomics had no effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic Philippines does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia, and the Philippine economic activity does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia. Research results in Brunei Darussalam showed that macroeconomic effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic Brunei Darussalam does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia, and the economic activity of Brunei Darussalam does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia. The results of the study on ASEAN as a whole show that macroeconomic effect on economic activity. Macroeconomic ASEAN influences the performance of IHSG Indonesia, and the economic activity of ASEAN does not affect the performance of IHSG Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FIA/2018/81/051802239 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Macroeconomic, Economic Activity, Kinerja IHSG Indonesia, t-statistic, ASEAN |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 339 Macroeconomics and related topics |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Administrasi > Ilmu Administrasi Bisnis / Niaga |
| Depositing User: | Yusuf Dwi N. |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Apr 2018 08:27 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Oct 2021 05:58 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/9588 |
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