Habib, Muhammad Husnul (2017) Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs (IDR/USD), Produk Domestik Bruto Dan Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Studi Pada Indonesia Periode 2008 - 2016). Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Pasar modal memiliki peran penting bagi perekonomian suatu negara, indikator yang digunakan untuk melihat perkembangan pasar modal di Indonesia adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) yang merupakan gabungan dari seluruh jenis saham yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Pergerakan IHSG dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor ekonomi makro dan harga komoditas yaitu inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto dan harga emas dunia. Berdasarkan alasan tesebut, pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel bebas pada penelitian ini yaitu Inflasi (X1), Kurs (IDR/USD) (X2), Produk Domestik Bruto (X3) dan Harga Emas Dunia (X4) terhadap variabel terikat Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y). Jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian explanatory research dengan pendekatan kuantitatif. Fokus penelitian ini adalah Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs (IDR/USD), Produk Domestik Bruto dan Harga Emas Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada periode 2008-2016. Data yang digunakan adalah seluruh data time series triwulan I 2008 – triwulan IV 2016 yang bersumber dari Bursa Efek Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan dan The London Bullion Market Association. Metode yang digunakan adalah Analisis statistik regresi linier berganda dibantu dengan program Statistic Package for Social Science (SPSS) 23 for Ms Windows. Hasil analisis data penelitian inimenunjukan pengaruh signifikan variabel Inflasi (X1), Kurs (IDR/USD) (X2), Produk Domestik Bruto (X3) dan Harga Emas Dunia (X4), secara simultan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y). Sedangkan secara parsial, menunjukan bahwa variabel Inflasi (X1) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y), Kurs (IDR/USD) (X2) berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y), Produk Domestik Bruto (X3) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y), Harga Emas Dunia (X4) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Y). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, disarankan kepada perusahaan untuk lebih memperhatikan perubahan variabel inflasi, nilai tukar, produk domestik bruto, dan harga emas dunia karena faktor ini merupakan faktor ekonomi makro yang mempengaruhi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan yang dapat berpengaruh vital terhadap besar-kecil beban yang akan di tanggung perusahaan di kemudian hari.
English Abstract
Capital market has an essential role for economy sector of a country, the indicator is used to observe the development of capital market in Indonesia is Indonesia Composite Index, (ICI) which is a combination of all types of shares that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). ICI movement is influenced by several macroeconomic factors and commodity prices such as inflation, exchange rate, gross domestic product and world gold price. Based on the reasons, the purpose of this study is to know the effect of independent variables in this study, that are inflation (X1), Exchange Rate (IDR/USD) (X2), Gross Domestic Product (X3) and World Gold Price (X4) Composite Stock Price Index (Y). The type of study used explanatory study with quantitative approach. The focus of this study are analysis of inflation influence, exchange rate (IDR / USD), gross domestic product and world gold price on composite stock price index in 2008-2016 period. This study used all of data from series time in first quarter, 2008 to fourth quarter, 2016 which sourced from Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Trade and The London Bullion Market Association. This study used multiple linear regression statistical analysis method which is assisted with Statistic Package for Social Science Program (SPSS) 23 for Ms Windows. The result of data analysis in this study shows the significant influence of Inflation (X1), Exchange (IDR/USD) (X2), Gross Domestic Product (X3) and World Gold Price (X4), simultaneously to Composite Stock Price Index (Y). On the other hand partially, it shows that the variable of Inflation in Indonesia (X1) does not have a significant effect to Composite Stock Price Index (Y), IDR/USD Rate (X2) A significant negative to the Composite Stock Price Index (Y), Gross Domestic Product (X3) A significant positive to the Composite Stock Price Index (Y), World Gold Price (X4) does not have significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index (Y). Based on the results of this study, it is suggested to the companies in order to pay more attention to the change of inflation variable, exchange rate, gross domestic product, and world gold price because this factor is a macroeconomic factor that affects the Composite Stock Price Index which can be a vital effect on high and low burden that will be responsibility of the company later on.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FIA/2017/1049/051712256 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Inflasi, Kurs (IDR/USD), Produk Domestik Bruto, Harga Emas Dunia dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 332 Financial economics > 332.6 Investment > 332.63 Specific forms of investment > 332.632 Securities, real estate, commodities > 332.632 2 Stocks (Shares) > 332.632 22 Prices |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Administrasi > Ilmu Administrasi Bisnis / Niaga |
| Depositing User: | Yusuf Dwi N. |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Dec 2017 06:17 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2020 09:58 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/7574 |
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