Faridhotin, Ima (2017) Peramalan Tinggi Muka Air Bengawan Solo Hilir Ruas Bojonegoro-Lamongan Akibat Adanya Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro dengan Metode Jaringan Saraf Tiruan. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Sungai Bengawan Solo merupakan sungai terbesar di Pulau Jawa, bagian hilir Bengawan Solo didaerah Bojonegoro, Tuban, Lamongan dan Gersik hampir setiap tahun banjir karena ketidakmampuan sungai mengalirkan debit banjir yang terjadi. Fluktuasi muka air di sungai Bengawan sangat berbeda, ketika musim kemarau di bagian hilir terjadi penurunan muka air yang cukup signifikan, maka untuk mengatasi berbagai permasalahan tersebut di bangun Bendung Gerak Babat tahun 2004 yang di operasikan untuk pemenuhan kebutuhan industri PT.Petrokimia Gersik, irigasi DI Leideng serta PDAM Lamongan. Sedangkan untuk mengatasi kekeringan di Bojonegoro dan sekitarnya pihak BBWS Bengawan Solo membangun Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro tahun 2012. Bangunan Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro akan mempengaruhi tinggi muka air di hulu Bendung Gerak Babat yang dikhawatirkan mengganggu pemenuhan kebutuhan air di daerah tersebut, maka pola operasi di Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro perlu disesuaikan dengan fluktuasi muka air di hulu Bendung Gerak Babat yang mempertahankan muka air di elevasi +2.00 m guna efektivitas penampungan, sedangkan untuk saat Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro yang diperuntukkan memenuhi kebutuhan industri Exxon Mobil Cepu, PDAM Bojonegoro dengan elevasi muka air minimum +8.50 m. Tujuan dari penelitian ini peramalan debit outflow Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro untuk mempercepat pengambilan keputusan dalam pengoperasian pintu air khususnya pada musim kemarau dengan metode Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan menggunakan data time series untuk pelatihan yang diharapkan mampu memperkirakan besaran debit yang harus dikeluarkan Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro agar tidak mengakibatkan kelebihan air di hulu Bendung Gerak Babat atau sebaliknya. Bentuk pemodelan JST untuk TMA BSH dilakukan dengan 2 kondisi yaitu sebelum (2008-2016) dan sesudah (2013-2016) adanya Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro dibangun, arsitektur JST yaitu MultiLayer Perceptron dengan menggunakan fungsi pelatihan Leverberg-Marquardt. Pada tahap pelatihan dengan bantuan software NeuroSolution 7.1. Training dengan hasil yang paling sesuai akan digunakan untuk menentukan pemodelan terbaik. Pelatihan dengan 500 epochs untuk prosentase data Training-Cross Validation-Testing (60-30-10)% dari keseluruhan data mempunyai kesesuaian yang terbaik dengan Kesalahan Ralatif (KR) 6,26% sebelum dan 6,70% sesudah Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro. Berdasarkan hasil analisis tinggi muka air Bengawan Solo Hilir dipengaruhi oleh operasional pintu Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro. Maka dilakukan peramalan TMA hulu Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro dengan metode JST dan arsitektur jaringan MultiLayer Perceptron. Pemodelan tersebut digunakan untuk meramalkan TMA hulu Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro bulan November-Desember 2016 dengan prosentase (70-20-10)% diperoleh KR 5,47%. Pada saat debit di pos Padangan > 500 m3/dt maka elevasi hulu Bendung Gerak Bojonegoro > +15.50 m dan pintu Bendung Gerak Babat akan dibuka penuh.
English Abstract
Bengawan Solo River is the largest river in Java Island. The downstream areas of Bengawan Solo are Bojonegoro, Tuban, Lamongan, and Gresik regions where flood happens almost in every year because of the river’s inability to flow the flood discharge. The fluctuation of water level in Bengawan Solo River is very different. It is proven when the dry season happens in the downstream, there is the decline of water level which is very significant. Therefore, to overcome those several issues, Babat Barrage was constructed in 2004 operated for the industrial needs fulfillment of PT. Petrokimia Gresik, DI Leideng irrigation as well as Lamongan Municipal Waterworks. On the other hand, to overcome drought in Bojonegoro and surrounding area, Bengawan Solo BBWS constructed Bojonegoro Barrage in 2012. Bojonegoro Barrage construction will affect the water level height in the Babat Barrage which is worried to disrupt the fulfillment of water need in that region. Then, the operation pattern in Bojonegoro Barrage must be adjusted to the fluctuation of water level in the upstream Babat Barrage which sustains the water level elevation of +2.00 m for storage effectiveness, while Bojonegoro Barrage for the industrial need fulfillment of Exxon Mobil Cepu, Bojonegoro Municipal Waterworks is with the water level elevation of +8.50 m minimum. The purpose of the research was the prediction of the outflow discharge of Bojonegoro Barrage in order to accelerate the decision making in the sluice operation particularly in dry season using the Artificial Nervous System method and time series data for the training. The method and the data used were expected to be able to predict the discharge amount which had to be flown out of Bojonegoro Barrage so that it would not cause the excess water in the upstream Babat Barrage or conversely. ANN modeling for water level of downstream Bengawan Solo was carried out with 2 conditions: before (2008-2016) and after (2013-2016) Bojonegoro Barrage was constructed. The ANN architecture was Multilayer Perceptron using the Leverberg-Marquardt training function. In the training stage, with the help of NeuroSolution 7.1. Training the most appropriate result would be used to determine the best modeling. The training with 500 epochs for the data percentage of the data Training-Cross Validation-Testing (60-30-10)% from the whole data had the best conformity with the Relative Error of 6,26% before and 6,70% after Bojonegoro Barrage. Based on the analysis result, the height water level of downstream Bengawan Solo was affected by the sluice operation of Bojonegoro Barrage. Consequently, the TMA prediction of upstream Bojonegoro Barrage with ANN method and the MultiLayer Perceptron net architecture was carried out. The modeling was used to predict water level of the upstream Bojonegoro Barrage in November-December 2016 in which with the percentage of (70-20-10)%, KR 5,47% was obtained. In one discharge in Padangan post was > 500 m3/second, then the elevation of upstream Bojonegoro Barrage was > +15.50 m and the sluice of Babat Barrage would be full open.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FT/2017/962/051708805 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan, NeuroSolution 7.1, Tinggi Muka Air, Bukaan Pintu |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 627 Hydraulic engineering > 627.4 Flood control |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Pengairan |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Sep 2017 10:05 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Nov 2024 01:43 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/2941 |
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