Pangestu, Sigit (2017) Implementasi Metode Gabungan Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series Dan Fuzzy C-Means Untuk Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Di Indonesia. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara pengkonsumsi listrik yang selalu mengalami kenaikan kebutuhan akan energi listrik setiap tahunnya. Kebutuhan listrik pada sektor rumah tangga dari tahun 2003 sampai 2013 di Indonesia mengalami kenaikan rata-rata sebesar 8% setiap tahunnya. Sedangkan pada sektor komersial rata-rata kenaikannya sebesar 10,1%. Pertumbuhan kebutuhan akan energi listrik sudah selayaknya mendapat penanganan yang tepat agar tidak terjadi kurangnya pasokan energi listrik yang dapat menyebabkan terhambatnya kegiatan perekonomian di Indonesia. Oleh karena itulah dibutuhkan suatu program yang dapat membantu penyuplai energi listrik di Indonesia (PLN) untuk menentukan besarnya energi listrik yang harus dipersiapkan. Metode Gabungan Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series dan Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) dapat digunakan untuk peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik. Fuzzy C-Means menggantikan salah satu proses yang pada metode Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series yaitu saat pembentukan subinterval. Alur dari metode tersebut yaitu penentuan Universe of Discourse, penentuan jumlah klaster, pembentukan subinterval dengan Fuzzy C-Means, pembentukan himpunan fuzzy, proses fuzzifikasi, pembentukan Fuzzy Logic Relationship (FLR), dan proses defuzzifikasi. Dari hasil pengujian didapatkan nilai MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) terkecil sebesar 1,7857%. Hasil MAPE yang diperoleh yaitu kurang dari 10% menunjukkan bahwa Metode Gabungan Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series dan Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) sangat baik digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik di Indonesia.
English Abstract
Indonesia is one of the countries consuming electricity which always experience the increasing need of electric energy every year. Electricity needs in the household sector from 2003 to 2013 in Indonesia increased by an average of 8% per year. While in the commercial sector the average increase of 10.1%. Growing demand for electrical energy should be properly handled in order to avoid the lack of electricity supply that can lead to inhibition of economic activity in Indonesia. Therefore it is needed a program that can help the supplier of electrical energy in Indonesia (PLN) to determine the amount of electrical energy that must be prepared. The Combined method Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) can be used to forecast electrical energy requirements. Fuzzy C-Means replaces one of the processes in the Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series method when creating subintervals. The path of the method is the determination of the Universe of Discourse, the determination of the number of clusters, the formation of subintervals with Fuzzy C-Means, the formation of fuzzy sets, the fuzzification process, the formation of Fuzzy Logic Relationship (FLR), and the defuzzification process. From the test results obtained the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 1.7857%. MAPE results obtained that less than 10% indicate that Combined Methods Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) is very good used to forecast electricity demand in Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FTIK/2017/429/051707751 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kebutuhan energi listrik, Fuzzy Time Series, Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series, Fuzzy C-Means, MAPE |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 333 Economics of land and energy > 333.7 Land, recreational and wilderness areas, energy > 333.79 Energy > 333.793 Secondary from of energy > 333.793 2 Electrical energy |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Teknik Informatika |
| Depositing User: | Yusuf Dwi N. |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2017 02:35 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Aug 2020 13:18 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/2605 |
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