Mitigasi Longsor Anthropogenic Berdasarkan Alih Fungsi Lahan di Sub Das Sumber Brantas dan Kali Konto Melalui Perbaikan Skenario Tata Guna Lahan.

Jaenudin, . and Ir. Aditya Nugraha Putra,, S.P., M.P. (2023) Mitigasi Longsor Anthropogenic Berdasarkan Alih Fungsi Lahan di Sub Das Sumber Brantas dan Kali Konto Melalui Perbaikan Skenario Tata Guna Lahan. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.

Abstract

Peningkatan populasi manusia serta adanya berbagai kepentingan di bidang politik, sosial, serta ekonomi mampu mendorong terjadinya perubahan penggunaan lahan di Sub DAS Sumber Brantas dan Kali Konto serta di dunia. Adanya perubahan penggunaan lahan yang terjadi, dapat memicu perubahan iklim serta mampu mengakibatkan berbagai bencana yang terjadi salah satunya yaitu longsor. Bencana longsor dapat terjadi akibat adanya pola tata guna lahan salah satunya mengubah (konversi) hutan menjadi area lain, sehingga adanya perubahan ini dapat memicu bencana yang terjadi karena telah hilangnya fungsi akar sebagai stabilitas lereng. Secara umum, perubahan tata guna lahan banyak terjadi di area hutan dengan melakukan konversi menjadi area lain. Berdasarkan undang – undang yang berlaku, pemerintah telah berupaya untuk melindungi hutan dengan menerapkan rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW), akan tetapi luas hutan yang terjadi masih tetap berkurang, hal ini diakibatkan oleh adanya kepentingan di berbagai faktor sehingga dapat mempengaruhi berjalannya penetapan rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW). Analisis bencana longsor dilakukan dengan berbasis skenario yang terdiri dari skenario tata guna lahan tahun 2017, 2019, 2021 dan 2022, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan skenario manajemen yang terdiri dari business as usual (BA) menggunakan cellular automata markov chain (CA Markov), kelas kemampuan lahan (KKL) serta rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW). Kemudian skenario tersebut didukung dengan 22 faktor pendorong longsor yang terdiri dari elevation, RDLS, Slope, Slope Position, Curvature, Profile Curvature, Plan Curvature, Aspect, Micro landform, TWI, TRI, STI, SPI, NDVI, Annual average rainfall, Distance form roads, Distance from rivers, Distance form fault, CRDS, POI kernel density, lithology, dan Land cover. Kemudian selanjutnya 22 faktor pendukung longsor tersebut dianalisis menggunakan software random forest untuk memperoleh sebaran bencana longsor yang presisi. Pola tata guna lahan berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh yaitu telah terjadi penurunan luas hutan dan agroforestri menjadi area lain sebesar 20,33%, berdasarkan skenario yang telah dilakukan terhadap tata guna lahan diperoleh peningkatan luas semak belukar dan padang rumput sebesar 12,62%. Skenario rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW) mampu meningkatkan hutan dan agroforestri sebesar 1,32%, skenario business as usual (BAU) menurunkan luas kebun sebesar 0,95% serta berdasarkan skenario kelas kemampuan lahan (KKL) luas hutan mengalami peningkatan mencapai 22,043%. Skenario terbaik dalam mitigasi bencana longsor terletak di kelas kemampuan lahan (KKL), karena masih tetap memperhatikan kondisi serta peran pohon sebagai stabilitas lereng. Hasil uji akurasi yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis kappa diperoleh dengan nilai 81% serta nilai tersebut dapat diterima dan dianggap akurat.

English Abstract

The increase in human population and the existence of various interests in the political, social and economic fields are able to encourage changes in land use in the Sumber Brantas and Konto River sub-watersheds as well as in the world. The changes in land use that occur can trigger climate change and can result in various disasters, one of which is landslides. Landslide disasters can occur due to land use patterns, one of which is changing (converting) forests into other areas, so that these changes can trigger disasters that occur because the function of roots as slope stability is lost. In general, land use changes often occur in forest areas by converting them into other areas. Based on applicable laws, the government has attempted to protect forests by implementing regional spatial planning (RTRW), however the forest area is still decreasing, this is due to the existence of interests in various factors that can influence the implementation of spatial planning planning region (RTRW). Landslide disaster analysis was carried out on a scenario basis consisting of land use scenarios for 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022, then continued with management scenarios consisting of business as usual (BA) using cellular automata markov chain (CA Markov), land capability classes (KKL) as well as regional spatial planning (RTRW). Then the scenario is supported by 22 landslide driving factors consisting of elevation, RDLS, Slope, Slope Position, Curvature, Profile Curvature, Plan Curvature, Aspect, Micro landform, TWI, TRI, STI, SPI, NDVI, Annual average rainfall, Distance form roads, Distance from rivers, Distance form fault, CRDS, POI kernel density, lithology, and land cover. Then the 22 supporting factors for landslides were analyzed using random forest software to obtain a precise distribution of landslides. The land use pattern based on the results obtained is that there has been a reduction in the area of forest and agroforestry to other areas by 20,33%, based on the scenarios that have been carried out for land use, it has been obtained that the area of shrubs and grasslands has increased by 12,62%. The regional spatial planning (RTRW) scenario is able to increase forests and agroforestry by 1,32%, the business as usual (BAU) scenario reduces plantation area by 0,95% and based on the land capability class (KKL) scenario, forest area increases by 22,043%. The best scenario in mitigating landslides is in the land capability class (KKL), because it still pays attention to the condition and role of trees as slope stability. The results of the accuracy test carried out using kappa analysis were obtained with a value of 81% and this value is acceptable and considered accurate.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Identification Number:	0523040341
Divisions:	Fakultas Pertanian > Ilmu Tanah
Depositing User:	Unnamed user with username nova
Date Deposited:	07 Feb 2024 05:04
Last Modified:	07 Feb 2024 05:04
URI:	http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/215846

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