Flypaper Effect: Pengaruh Perubahan Dana Transfer dan Pendapatan Masyarakat terhadap Pola Belanja Pemerintah Daerah di Indonesia.

Nurosidah, Sherlita and Prof. Dr. Mohamad Khusaini,, SE, M.Si., MA. and Dr.rer.pol. Ferry Prasetyia, SE., M.App.Ec. (2022) Flypaper Effect: Pengaruh Perubahan Dana Transfer dan Pendapatan Masyarakat terhadap Pola Belanja Pemerintah Daerah di Indonesia. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keberadaan flypaper effect serta hubungannya dengan threshold effect pada belanja daerah di Indonesia. Kebergantungan pemerintah daerah pada dana transfer merupakan topik yang telah dikaji di berbagai negara, baik negara maju maupun berkembang. Penelitian ini menganalisa secara komprehensif flypaper effect dengan berlandaskan teori median voter. Selain itu, endogenitas unconditional transfer (DAU) dan karakteristik politik juga dipertimbangkan dalam penelitian ini. Flypaper effect tidak hanya ditinjau dari kenaikan namun juga penurunan DAU. Hubungan antara basis pajak sebagai threshold dan flypaper effect pun juga dianalisa. Panel data atas 476 daerah kabupaten/kota selama 11 tahun dianalisa menggunakan 2SLS dan regresi panel threshold Hansen 1999. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat flypaper effect pada total belanja dan seluruh jenis belanja per komponen. Hal tersebut menunjukkan adanya dorongan yang besar bagi daerah untuk cenderung memiliki motif maksimalisasi anggaran dibandingkan kesejahteraan rakyat. Belanja operasi merupakan jenis belanja yang paling besar terpengaruh flypaper effect. Seluruh belanja menunjukkan adanya asimetri atas perubahan DAU. Seluruh belanja ditemukan jenis asimetri fiscal restraint, kecuali belanja modal yang mengindikasikan fiscal replacement. Pendapatan masyarakat berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan hanya pada belanja tidak terduga dan belanja transfer. Semakin kecil basis pajak, maka semakin besar keterjadian flypaper effect. Terdapat indikasi bahwa daerah tidak mampu mengolah potensi basis pajak menjadi pendapatan daerah secara optimal.

English Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify the occurrence of flypaper effect and its linkage with threshold effect in Indonesian local government expenditures. The dependency of the said local governments on transfer fund is a topic that has been widely discussed in various countries, both developed and developing. This research comprehensively analyzes flypaper effects using the median voter theorem as the basis, while taking unconditional transfer’s endogeneity and political characteristics into consideration. Further, flypaper effect is examined from not only the increase but also the decrease of the aforementioned transfer, and relationships between tax bases as threshold and flypaper effects were also analyzed. An eleven-year data panel of 476 regencies and cities was analyzed using 2SLS and Hansen’s threshold panel regression. The results indicate that flypaper effect does occur in total expenditures and in all types of expenses in each component. This shows an enormous pressure directed to local governments to maximize budget rather than to maximize people’s welfare. Operational spending is the type of expenditure that is influenced most by the flypaper effect. Further, all expenditures show asymmetry against changes in unconditional transfer, while fiscal restraint asymmetry is identified in all expenditures except capital expenditure, which indicates fiscal replacement. Then, people’s income only has a significant and negative impact on unexpected expenditures and transfer expenses. The smaller the tax bases, the higher the likeliness of flypaper effect occurrences. There is also an indication that the local governments have no capability to optimally process potential tax bases into local revenues.

Item Type:	Thesis (Magister)
Identification Number:	0423020108
Uncontrolled Keywords:	flypaper effect, DAU, pemerintah daerah, belanja, pendapatan masyarakat, threshold effect
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Ilmu Ekonomi
Depositing User:	Unnamed user with username nova
Date Deposited:	12 Jan 2024 02:13
Last Modified:	12 Jan 2024 02:13
URI:	http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/208576

Text (DALAM MASA EMBARGO) Sherlita Nurosidah.pdf Restricted to Registered users only until 31 December 2025. Download (11MB)

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