Akhmad., Mahdi and Prof. Dr. Ir. Sugeng Prijono, SU (2023) Simulasi Perubahan Iklim terhadap Kelengasan Tanah dan Potensi Reduksi Produksi di Kebun Kopi Rakyat Wilayah Malang Selatan. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Isu perubahan suhu dan curah hujan dapat menjadi penyebab fluktuasi jumlah suplai air di dalam tanah sehingga mempengaruhi ketersediaan air terhadap pemenuhan kebutuhan air tanaman. Kopi merupakan komoditas ekspor bernilai tinggi tentunya mengalami permasalahan ketersediaan air selama perubahan iklim yang mengakibatkan penurunan produksi di wilayah Jawa Timur khususnya di wilayah selatan Kabupaten Malang. Penelitian dilakukan untuk mensimulasikan peningkatan suhu dan penurunan curah hujan pada berbagai tekstur tanah dan dampaknya terhadap potensi reduksi produksi di kebun kopi rakyat wilayah Malang Selatan melalui metode neraca air Thornthwaite-Mather dengan kombinasi CROPWAT 8.0. Penelitian dilakukan pada bulan Juli 2023. Lokasi penelitian dilakukan di kebun kopi rakyat di Kabupaten Malang yaitu Kecamatan Dampit, Sumbermanjing dan Wajak yang dipilih berdasarkan perbedaan jenis tekstur tanah sehingga dapat dibandingkan kemampuan tanah dalam menyediakan air tersedia untuk tanaman kopi. Penelitian menggunakan metode survei dan simulasi. Penelitian dilakukan mulai dari tahap persiapan awal, survei lapangan, pengambilan sampel dan analisis data secara kualitatif, rekapitulasi data iklim, neraca air, ketersediaan air tanaman, penentuan kebutuhan air tanaman, dan potensi reduksi produksi. Skenario simulasi didasarkan pada laporan Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pada tahun 2014 dengan model Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 tentang perubahan iklim global sebesar 3,7°C pada tahun 2100. Skenario peningkatan suhu sebesar 1, 2 dan 3°C disimulasikan pada tahun 2033, 2063 dan 2093 dengan penurunan curah hujan sebesar (-5%), (-10%) dan (-20%). Skenario yang digunakan yaitu C0 (rerata iklim 10 tahun terakhir), C1 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH-5%), C2 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH-10%), C3 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH-20%), C4 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-5%), C5 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-10%), C6 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-20%), C7 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-5%), C8 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-10%), dan C9 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-20%). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa skenario perubahan iklim berpengaruh terhadap sebaran bulan surplus dan defisit. Bulan surplus terjadi pada bulan November sampai April sedangkan bulan defisit terjadi pada bulan Mei sampai Oktober. Penurunan durasi bulan suplus terjadi pada semua skenario di lokasi Dampit sedangkan peningkatan bulan defisit terjadi di lokasi Sumbermanjing dan Wajak pada skenario perubahan suhu dan curah hujan (-20%) yakni C3, C6 dan C9. Hasil simulasi pada skenario C9 dengan peningkatan suhu 3°C dan penurunan curah hujan 20% menunjukkan hasil potensi reduksi produksi tertinggi sebesar 20,6%. Reduksi produksi merupakan dampak akibat adanya penurunan ketersediaan air di dalam tanah sehingga tidak terkecukupinya kebutuhan air tanaman untuk fase pertumbuhan tanaman kopi yang ditandai dengan deplesi air pada zona perakaran tanaman kopi.
English Abstract
The issue of changes in temperature and rainfall can be the cause of fluctuations in the amount of water supply in the soil, thereby affecting the availability of water to meet crop water needs. Coffee is a high-value export commodity, of course experiencing problems with water availability during climate change which resulted in a decrease in production in the East Java region, especially in the southern region of Malang Regency. The study was conducted to simulate an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall on various soil textures and their impact on the potential for reducing production in smallholder coffee plantations in the South Malang region through the Thornthwaite-Mather water balance method with a combination of CROPWAT 8.0. The research was conducted in July 2023. The research location was carried out in community coffee plantations in Malang Regency, namely Dampit, Sumbermanjing and Wajak Districts which were selected based on differences in soil texture types so that the ability of the soil to provide available water for coffee plants can be compared. Research using survey and simulation methods. The research was carried out starting from the initial preparation stage, field surveys, sampling and qualitative data analysis, climate data recapitulation, water balance, crop water availability, determination of plant water needs, and potential reduction in production. The simulation scenario is based on the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2014 with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 model on global climate change of 3.7°C in 2100. Scenario of a temperature increase of 1, 2 and 3°C simulated in 2033, 2063 and 2093 with decreased rainfall of (-5%), (-10%) and (-20%). The scenarios used were C0 (average of last 10 years climate data), C1 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH-5%), C2 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH- 10%), C3 (ΔT+1°C, ΔH-20%), C4 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-5%), C5 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-10%), C6 (ΔT+2°C, ΔH-20%), C7 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-5%), C8 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-10%), and C9 (ΔT+3°C, ΔH-20%). The results of the study show that the climate change scenario affects the distribution of surplus and deficit months. The surplus months occur from November to April while the deficit months occur from May to October. The decrease in the duration of the surplus month occurred in all scenarios at the Dampit location, while the increase in the deficit month occurred at the Sumbermanjing and Wajak locations in the scenario of increasing temperature and rainfall (-20%) namely C3, C6 and C9. The simulation results in the C9 scenario with an increase in temperature of 3°C and a decrease in rainfall of 20% show the highest production reduction potential of 20.6%. Reduction in production is an impact due to a decrease in the availability of water in the soil so that the water needs of the plants are not sufficient for the growth phase of the coffee plant which is characterized by water depletion in the root zone of the coffee plant.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 052304 |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pertanian > Ilmu Tanah |
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with username ismiatun |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Jan 2024 03:44 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Jan 2024 07:34 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/206435 |
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