Maulida, Deyanti Alya and Ir. Aida Sartimbul,, M.Sc., Ph.D and Syarifah Hikmah Julinda Sari,, S.Pi., M.Sc. Ph.D (2023) Analisis Variasi Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) Terhadap Curah Hujan. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Perubahan iklim (climate change) yang terjadi beberapa tahun terakhir dapat mempengaruhi berbagai fenomena alam. Salah satu fenomena cuaca ekstrem yang terjadi adalah fenomena hujan es di Kota Surabaya pada Februari 2022. Secara geografis Kota Surabaya berhadapan langsung dengan Perairan Selat Madura. Di samping itu, sebaran angin dari Selat Madura cenderung berhembus dari arah Tenggara dan Timur yang bergerak menuju Kota Surabaya. Intensitas curah hujan (CH) yang fluktuatif seringkali dihubungkan dengan variabilitas suhu permukaan laut (SPL), sebab SPL dapat menyediakan uap air dengan bantuan angin yang akan mempengaruhi fluktuasi dari intensitas CH. Variabilitas SPL di Perairan Indonesia dalam skala regional dapat dipengaruhi oleh empat musim, yaitu Musim Barat, Peralihan I, Timur dan Peralihan II. Sementara itu, dalam skala global variabilitas SPL dipengaruhi oleh El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (i) mengetahui variasi SPL di Selat Madura; (ii) mengetahui variasi CH di Kota Surabaya; (iii) menganalisis korelasi antara SPL terhadap CH; (iv) menganalisis pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap variasi SPL dan CH. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data SPL dari citra satelit Aqua MODIS level 3, kemudian data CH Kota Surabaya diukur in situ selama 2013-2022. Sementara itu, data indeks Nino 3.4 digunakan sebagai indikator saat ENSO berlangsung dan data Dipole Mode Index (DMI) digunakan sebagai indikator saat IOD berlangsung dari website PSL NOAA. Selanjutnya, analisis temporal dilakukan untuk mengetahui besarnya intensitas pada kedua indeks fenomena perubahan iklim tersebut, lalu diplotkan dalam variasi temporal SPL dan CH. Selain itu, hubungan antara SPL, CH dan indeks iklim dianalisis dengan metode Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Hasil dari penelitian ini dapat diamati tren kenaikan SPL sebesar +0,025 oC selama 2013-2022. Terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara variasi musiman SPL pada Musim Timur dan Musim Barat. Sementara itu, diamati tren penurunan CH di Kota Surabaya sebesar -0,982 mm selama 2013-2022. Selain itu, sebaran CH yang variatif dijumpai pada saat Musim Peralihan I dan II. Selanjutnya, variabilitas SPL dan CH dominan dipengaruhi oleh indeks DMI (IOD), lalu diperkuat oleh indeks Nino 3.4 (ENSO). Saat terjadinya El Niño dan IOD (+) mengakibatkan adanya penurunan SPL secara signifikan yang menyebabkan rendahnya intensitas CH, sedangkan saat La Niña dan IOD (-) berlangsung terjadi peningkatan SPL yang selaras dengan peningkatan intensitas CH. Dijumpai adanya korelasi antara SPL terhadap CH setiap musim yang berbanding lurus, kecuali Musim Barat. Di samping itu, terjadinya fenomena hujan es seperti pada bulan Februari 2022 dapat terjadi pada intensitas CH normal, sebab dapat dipengaruhi oleh La Niña yang berkepanjangan tahun 2020-2022.
English Abstract
Climate change that has occurred in recent years can affect various natural phenomena. One of the extreme weather phenomena that occurs is the phenomenon of hailstorm in the city of Surabaya on February 2022. Geographically, the city of Surabaya is directly opposite the Madura Strait waters. In addition, the distribution of winds from the Madura Strait tends to blow from the southeast and east moving towards the city of Surabaya. Fluctuating rainfall intensity (RI) is often associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, because SST can provide water vapor with the help of wind which will affect fluctuations in RI. SST variability in Indonesian waters on a regional scale can be influenced by four seasons, namely the northwest season, 1st transitional inter-monsoon seasons, southeast season and 2nd transitional inter-monsoon seasons. Meanwhile, on a global scale, SST variability is influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study aims to: (i) determine variations in SST in the Madura Strait; (ii) knowing the variation of RI in the city of Surabaya; (iii) analyze the correlation between SST and RI; (iv) analyzing the effect of climate change on variations in SST and RI. The data used in this study is SST data from Aqua MODIS level 3 satellite imagery, then Surabaya City CH data is measured in situ during 2013-2022. Meanwhile, the Nino 3.4 index data is used as an indicator when ENSO takes place and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) data is used as an indicator when IOD takes place from the NOAA PSL website. Furthermore, a temporal analysis was carried out to determine the magnitude of the intensity of the two climate change phenomenon indices, then plotted in the temporal variation of SST and RI. In addition, the relationship between SST, RI and climate index is analyzed using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. The results of this study can be observed an increasing trend of SST of +0.025 oC during 2013-2022. Significant seasonal variations in SST occur between the southeast season and northwest season. Meanwhile, a decreasing trend of RI in Surabaya City was observed of -0.982 mm during 2013-2022. In addition, a varied distribution of RI was found during the 1st transitional inter-monsoon and 2nd transitional inter-monsoon. Furthermore, the variability of SST and RI is dominantly influenced by the DMI index (IOD), then strengthened by the Nino 3.4 index (ENSO). When El Niño and IOD (+) occur, there is a significant decrease in SST which results in a lower RI intensity, whereas during La Niña and IOD (-) there is an increase in SST in line with an increase in RI intensity. It was found that there was a correlation between SST and RI every season which was directly proportional, except for the northwest season. In addition, the occurrence of hailstorm phenomena such as in February 2022 can occur at normal RI intensity, because it can be affected by a prolonged La Niña in 2020-2022.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0523080364 |
| Subjects: | 500 Natural sciences and mathematics > 551 Geology, hydrology, meteorology > 551.4 Geomorphology and hydrosphere > 551.46 Oceanography and submarine geology |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Perikanan dan Ilmu Kelautan > Ilmu Kelautan |
| Depositing User: | Sugeng Moelyono |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Dec 2023 04:08 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Dec 2023 04:08 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/204804 |
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