Girsang, Putri Feronika and Hery Toiba,, SP., MP.,Ph.D and Prof. Dr.Ir. Syafrial,, MS (2022) Volatilitas dan Transmisi Harga Telur Ayam Sebelum dan Selama Pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Pemahaman tentang dinamika harga dan volatilitas bahan pangan telah mendapatkan perhatian yang cukup besar di kehidupan masyarakat karena mengalami fluktuasi harga yang tajam akibat gejolak ekonomi dan krisis keuangan. COVID-19 menjadi salah satu kondisi krisis ekonomi terbesar yang dialami oleh Indonesia yang memicu terjadinya volatilitas (resiko) ditingkat produsen dan ditingkat konsumen. Salah satu bahan pangan yang mengalami ketidakstabilan harga saat pandemi COVID-19 adalah bahan pangan telur ayam ras. Sehingga penelitian ini memiliki tujuan untuk menganalisis volatilitas telur ayam ras di Indonesia sebelum dan selama pandemi COVID-19. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk menganalisis transmisi harga yang terjadi pada tingkat produsen dan konsumen telur ayam di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series harga mingguan telur ayam ras secara nasional yang dibedakan menjadi dua kondisi yakni pada Maret 2018 hingga Maret 2020 merupakan kondisi sebelum pandemi COVID-19 dan kondisi selama pandemi COVID-19 menggunakan data harga mingguan pada bulan Maret 2020 hingga Maret 2022. Analisis volatilitas harga dilakukan dengan menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH dan untuk analisis transmisi harga digunakan analisis VAR/VECM. Data yang diperoleh berupa data harga konsumen dan produsen melalui website SIMPONI-Ternak oleh Kementerian Pertanian Republik Indonesia dan Sistem Pemantauan Pasar dan Kebutuhan Pokok Kementerian Perdagangan (SP2KP). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan volatilitas harga konsumen pada saat sebelum pandemi COVID-19 sebesar 1.062 yakni dengan kategori high volatility dan selama pandemi COVID-19 juga menunjukkan kategori tinggi sebesar 1.321. Hal ini berbeda dengan volatilitas harga produsen saat sebelum pandemi COVID19 sebesar 1.139 yang menunjukkan kategori high volatility dan selama pandemi COVID-19 memiliki nilai volatilitas sebesar 6.109 yakni extremely high volatility. Selain itu, hasil analisis juga menunjukkan terjadinya transmisi harga antara harga produsen dengan harga konsumen dalam jangka pendek melalui pendekatan model ii VAR. Hal ini menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek terjadi transmisi harga produsen terhadap harga konsumen ataupun sebaliknya yakni harga konsumen berpengaruh terhadap harga produsen. Akan tetapi, kontribusi harga konsumen mempengaruhi harga produsen lebih besar dibandingkan kontribusi harga produsen mempengaruhi harga konsumen telur ayam di Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini diharapkan dapat berguna sebagai informasi dalam pembuatan policy terkait dengan intervensi bantuan pangan ke masyarakat yang tepat dan juga memberikan regulasi harga sebagai upaya perbaikan sistem pertanian dalam mencapai kestabilan harga telur ayam ras baik di tingkat produsen maupun konsumen.
English Abstract
An understanding of price dynamics and food volatility has received considerable attention in people's lives due to sharp price fluctuations due to economic turmoil and financial crises. COVID-19 is one of the biggest economic crisis conditions experienced by Indonesia which triggers unstable price volatile at the producer level and at the consumer level. One of the foodstuffs that experienced price volatile during the COVID-19 pandemi was chicken eggs. So, this study aims to analyze the volatility of broiler eggs in Indonesia before and during the COVID19 pandemi. In addition, this study also aims to analyze the price transmission that occurs at the level of producers and consumers of chicken eggs in Indonesia. This study uses time series data on the price of national chicken eggs which are divided into two conditions, namely in March 2018 to March 2020, which was the condition before the COVID-19 pandemi and conditions during the COVID-19 pandemi using the price data from March 2020 to March 2022. Price volatility analysis was carried out using the ARCH/GARCH model and for the analysis of price transmission used VAR/VECM analysis. The data obtained are in the form of consumer and producer price data through the SIMPONI-Livestock website by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia and the Market Monitoring System and Basic Needs of the Ministry of Trade (SP2KP). The results showed that the volatility of consumer prices before the COVID-19 pandemi was 1.062, namely in the high volatility category and during the COVID-19 pandemi it also showed a high category of 1.099. This is different from the volatility of producer prices before the COVID-19 pandemi of 1,039 which indicated a high volatility category and during the COVID-19 pandemi it had a volatility value of 6,109, which is very high volatility. In addition, the results of the analysis also show the occurrence of price transmission between producer prices and consumer prices in the short term through the VAR model approach. This shows that in the short term there is a producer price against consumer prices or vice versa, but on the contrary, the contribution of consumer iv prices affects producer prices is greater than the contribution of producer prices affects consumer prices of chicken eggs in Indonesia. Therefore, this research is expected to be useful as information in policy making related to appropriate food assistance interventions to the community and also to provide price regulation as an effort to improve the system in achieving price stability for broiler eggs both at the producer and consumer levels.
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Magister) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0422040071 |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 338 Production > 338.1 Agriculture |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Magister Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | PKN 01 UB |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Jun 2023 01:57 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Jun 2023 01:57 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/201380 |
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