Sulistiawan, Rifky Maulana and Hery Toiba, and Novil Dedy Andriatmoko (2022) Pengaruh Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Volatilitas Harga Cabai Rawit (Capsicum Frutescens) Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Terdapat beberapa sektor yang terdampak oleh pandemi COVID-19 salah satunya adalah pertanian yang merupakan sumber pangan utama bagi masayarakat Indonesia. Jawa Timur merupakan provinsi yang menyumbang produksi cabai rawit terbesar di Indonesia. Pada tahun 2019 produksi cabai rawit di Jawa Timur sebesar 536.098 ton dengan total luas lahan yang digunakan oleh petani sebesar 67.767 ha. Volatilitas produksi pada produk pertanian akan menyebabkan bergesernya kurva penawaran. Turunnya produksi dari suatu produk akan mengakibatkan naiknya harga dan menyebabkan bergesernya kurva penawaran. Provinsi Jawa Timur merupakan sentra produksi cabai rawit terbesar dan merupakan salah satu wilayah yang terkonfirmasi COVID-19 terbanyak di Indonesia. Penelitian ini akan menganalisis harga cabai rawit di berbagai kabupaten/kota di Jawa Timur sebelum pandemi COVID-19 dan membandingkan dengan harga yang ditetapkan pada saat pandemi terjadi. Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu provinsi yang melaksanakan kebijakan PSBB karena tingginya angka kasus positif COVID-19 di daerah tersebut, sehingga menghambat proses distribusi pada cabai rawit. Terbatasnya kuantitas produk di pasar dapat menyebabkan volatilitas harga di daerah tersebut. Sehingga dibentuknya tujuan, yaitu mengetahui pengaruh pandemi COVID-19 terhadap volatilitas harga cabai rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur dan mengetahui faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga cabai rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur pada saat pandemi COVID-19. Pada penelitian ini penentuan nilai volatilitas harga cabai rawit di Jawa Timur menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Penentuan lokasi pada penelitian ini yaitu berada di wilayah Jawa Timur. Data harga cabai rawit harian selama dua tahun tersebut kemudian diolah menjadi data mingguan. Data sekunder didapatkan dari badan statistik, literasi dan situs internet. Jenis data dalam penelitian ini yaitu data deret waktu (time series) mingguan. Metode analisis data mengguanakan uji stasioneritas data, yaitu uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF-Test). Pengujian stasioner menggunakan aplikasi Eviews 12, model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), model ARCH-GARCH. Kesimpulan yang didapatkan adalah harga rata-rata cabai rawit di Kota Surabaya, Kota Madiun, dan Kabupaten Sampang mengalami penurunan pada saat pandemi COVID-19 dibandingkan dengan sebelum terjadinya pandemi di Indonesia. Penurunan harga terjadi di Kota Surabaya, Kota Madiun, dan Kabupaten Sampang berturut-turut sebesar 36.3%, 38.1% dan 43.1%. Hasil uji Volatilitas harga cabai rawit pada Kota Surabaya, Kota Madiun, dan Kabupaten Sampang menunjukkan nilai volatilitas harga yang terjadi rendah (low volatility). Pada Kabupaten Sampang nilai volatilitas harga yang terjadi sangat tinggi (very high volatility)
English Abstract
There are several sectors affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, one of which is agriculture which is the main food source for the Indonesian people. East Java is a province that contributes the largest cayenne pepper production in Indonesia. In 2019 the production of cayenne pepper in East Java was 536,098 tons with a total land area used by farmers of 67,767 ha. Production volatility in agricultural products will cause the supply curve to shift. A decrease in the production of a product will result in an increase in price and cause a shift in the supply curve. East Java Province is the largest cayenne pepper production center and is one of the most confirmed areas for COVID-19 in Indonesia. This study will analyze the price of cayenne pepper in various districts/cities in East Java before the COVID-19 pandemic and compare it with the price set when the pandemic occurred. East Java is one of the provinces that implements the PSBB policy due to the high number of positive cases of COVID-19 in the area, thus hampering the distribution process for cayenne pepper. The limited quantity of products in the market can lead to price volatility in the area. So that the objective was to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the price volatility of cayenne pepper in East Java Province and to determine the factors that influenced the price volatility of cayenne pepper in East Java Province during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the price volatility of cayenne pepper in East Java was determined using the ARCH/GARCH model. In this study using a quantitative approach. The location determination in this research is in East Java. The daily cayenne pepper price data for two years is then processed into weekly data. Secondary data were obtained from statistical agencies, literacy and internet sites. The type of data in this study is weekly time series data. The data analysis method used the data stationarity test, namely the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF-Test) test. Stationary testing using the Eviews 12 application, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the ARCH-GARCH model. The conclusion obtained is that the average price of cayenne pepper in Surabaya City, Madiun City, and Sampang Regency decreased during the COVID- 19 pandemic compared to before the pandemic occurred in Indonesia. Price reductions occurred in Surabaya City, Madiun City, and Sampang Regency respectively by 36.3%, 38.1% and 43.1%. The results of the volatility test for the price of cayenne pepper in Surabaya City, Madiun City, and Sampang Regency showed that the value of price volatility was low (low volatility). In Sampang Regency, the value of price volatility that occurs is very high (very high volatility)
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0522040495 |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 338 Production > 338.1 Agriculture |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pertanian > Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | Nur Cholis |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Apr 2023 03:08 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Apr 2023 03:08 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/198252 |
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