Rachman, Puti Humaira and Hery Toiba, and Condro Puspo Nugroho , (2022) Analisis Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Harga Beras Di Jawa Timur. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Pandemi COVID-19 secara langsung berdampak terhadap sistem pangan yang terlihat pada pasokan, permintaan, distribusi, dan secara tidak langsung melalui perubahan harga pangan. Dampak pembatasan mobilitas melalui PSBB, PPKM dan protokol kesehatan lainnya, membuat aktivitas masyarakat untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pangan pokok menjadi terhambat sehingga dikhawatirkan dapat berpengaruh terhadap perubahan harga pangan. Maka penelitian ini dapat berkontribusi terhadap literatur dalam dua aspek penting, pertama penelitian ini merupakan bukti empiris pertama di Jawa Timur karena termasuk dalam 5 besar provinsi dengan kasus COVID-19 tertinggi di Indonesia menurut Satuan Tugas Penanganan COVID-19 (2021) dan merupakan provinsi penghasil beras terbesar di Indonesia dalam BPS (2021). Kedua, penelitian ini dapat memberikan pengetahuan ataupun menjadi sumber referensi terkait dampak dari pandemi COVID-19 terhadap perubahan harga beras di Jawa Timur dan dapat memberikan saran dalam upaya menangani perubahan harga beras di Jawa Timur akibat COVID-19. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan harga beras di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Timur berdasarkan tingkat kasus COVID-19 sebelum dan selama masa pandemi, dan menganalisis perbandingan tingkat volatilitas harga beras berdasarkan tingkat kasus COVID-19 di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode penelitian deskriptif. Metode penentuan lokasi dalam penelitian ini dilakukan secara sengaja (purposive) yang berlokasi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data deret waktu (time series) harian yang diolah menjadi data mingguan dengan periode waktu dari 1 Januari 2019 sampai dengan 31 Desember 2021. Data yang ditentukan berupa data harga beras tipe IR-64 di tingkat konsumen pada Kota Surabaya, Kabupaten Madiun dan Kabupaten Sampang yang dipilih sebagai sampel berdasarkan tingkat kasus positif COVID-19 (tinggi, sedang, dan rendah) di Jawa Timur. Data harga beras provinsi Jawa Timur yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini didapatkan dari website SISKAPERBAPO. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode analisis volatilitas menggunakan metode ARCH & GARCH. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa harga beras pada pada Kota Surabaya, Kabupaten Madiun, dan Kabupaten Sampang sebelum masa pandemi lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan harga beras selama masa pandemi (mengalami penurunan). Hasil uji volatilitas harga beras rata-rata mingguan ketiga Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Timur tersebut menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas harga beras mingguan pada Kota Surabaya, Kabupaten Madiun, dan Kabupaten Sampang memiliki nilai volatilitas harga beras yang rendah (low volatility), volatilitas harga yang rendah tersebut menunjukkan bahwa resiko yang dialami dan tingkat variasi harganya juga rendah
English Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has a direct impact on the food system, which can be seen in supply, demand, distribution, and indirectly through changes in food prices. The impact of restrictions on mobility through PSBB, PPKM and other health protocols has obstruct community activities to meet basic food needs, so it is feared that it could affect in food prices changes. So this research can contribute to the literature in two important aspects, first this research is the first empirical evidence in East Java because it is included in the top 5 provinces with the highest COVID-19 cases in Indonesia according to the COVID-19 Handling Task Force (2021) and is a producing province. the largest rice in Indonesia in the BPS (2021). Second, this research can provide knowledge or be a reference source regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in rice prices in East Java and can provide advice in an effort to deal with changes in rice prices in East Java due to COVID-19. This study purpose is to analyze changes in rice prices in the Regency/City of East Java Province based on the level of COVID-19 cases before and during the pandemic, and analyze the comparison of the level of rice price volatility based on the level of COVID-19 cases in the Regency/City of East Java Province. This study uses a quantitative research approach with descriptive research methods. The method of determining the location in this study was purposively located in East Java Province. The type of data used is daily time series data which is processed into weekly data with a time period from January 1st 2019 to December 31st 2021. The data determined are rice price data of type IR-64 at the consumer level in Surabaya City, Regency Madiun and Sampang districts were selected as samples based on the rate of positive cases of COVID-19 (high, medium, and low) in East Java. The data on the rice price in East Java province used in this study was obtained from the SISKAPERBAPO website. The analytical method used in this research is the volatility analysis method using the ARCH & GARCH method. The results of this study shows that the price of rice in the City of Surabaya, Madiun Regency, and Sampang Regency before the pandemic period was higher than the price of rice during the pandemic (decreased). The results of the weekly average rice price volatility test in the three regencies/cities in East Java show that the weekly rice price volatility in the city of Surabaya, Madiun, and Sampang district has a low value of rice price volatility (low volatility). shows that the risk experienced and the level of price variation is also low.
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0522040278 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Volatilitas Harga Beras, ARCH GARCH, COVID-19, Jawa Timur, Rice Price Volatility, ARCH GARCH, COVID-19, East Java. |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 338 Production > 338.1 Agriculture |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pertanian > Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | Nur Cholis |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Jan 2023 02:13 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Jan 2023 02:13 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/196569 |
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