Waluyadi, Heriantono and Prof. Dr. Ir. Pitojo Tri Juwono, MT., IPU. and Dr. Ir. Widandi Sutopo, M.Eng. and Dr. Ir. Rispiningtati, M.Eng. (2022) Model Pola Operasi Waduk Berbasis Inflow yang Adaptif terhadap Perubahan Iklim. Doktor thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Perubahan iklim yang terjadi dalam 40 tahun terakhir membawa dampak yang signifikan di permukaan bumi. Anomali perubahan Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) seperti fenomena ENSO, IOD dan SOI, mengakibatkan perubahan musim di Indonesia, yang dapat mempengaruhi aliran (Inflow) waduk dan berdampak pada pola operasi waduk. Menurunnya kapasitas tampung waduk akibat sedimen dan kebutuhan air waduk yang semakin meningkat, merupakan masalah yang perlu dipikirkan dalam upaya pemeliharaan dan upgrading waduk, salah satu upaya upgrading waduk adalah dilakukan optimalisasi pola operasi waduk dengan Inflow yang adaptif terhadap perubahan iklim. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan hubungan antara data SPL (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, IOD West, IOD East dan indeks SOI) dari NOAA dan data curah hujan dari tahun 1998 sampai 2018 pada 9 stasiun di DAS Waduk Wonogiri dari BBWS Bengawan Solo. Dengan analisis regresi linier berganda dengan metode regresi bertahap menunjukkan bahwa pada musim hujan, curah hujan di DAS Wonogiri dan Inflow di Waduk Wonogiri dipengaruhi oleh indeks SPL (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4). Sedangkan pada musim kemarau, curah hujan di DAS Wonogiri dan Inflow di Waduk Wonogiri dipengaruhi oleh indeks SPL (IOD Barat, IOD Timur dan SOI). Hubungan curah hujan dan SPL dimodelkan untuk mendapatkan probabilitas distribusi Inflow pada setiap periode (setiap 15 hari). Model Inflow yang dipengaruhi oleh perubahan iklim ini, digunakan untuk model pola operasi waduk dengan program dinamik stokastik. Dalam penelitian ini dibuat 6 skenario optimasi pola operasi waduk, dan hasil optimasi menunjukkan skenario 6, memiliki nilai manfaat paling optimum, kinerja tertinggi daladalam nilai keandalan dan kelentingan, dalam simulasi untuk periode antara tahun 1979-2018.
English Abstract
Climate change that has occurred in the last 40 years has had a significant impact on the earth's surface. Anomalies of changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) such as the ENSO, IOD and SOI phenomena, result in seasonal changes in Indonesia, which can affect reservoir inflow and have an impact on reservoir operating patterns. The decrease in reservoir capacity due to sediment and increasing reservoir water demand is a problem that needs to be considered in reservoir maintenance and upgrading efforts, one of the reservoir upgrading efforts is to optimize the reservoir operation pattern with adaptive inflow to climate change. This study uses the relationship between SST data (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, IOD West, IOD East and SOI index) from NOAA and rainfall data from 1998 to 2018 at 9 stations in the Wonogiri reservoir watershed from BBWS. Bengawan Solo. Multiple linear regression analysis using the stepwise regression method shows that during the rainy season, rainfall in the Wonogiri watershed and inflow in the Wonogiri reservoir is influenced by the SST index (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4). Meanwhile, in the dry season, rainfall in the Wonogiri watershed and inflow in the Wonogiri reservoir is influenced by the SST index (West IOD, East IOD and SOI). The relationship between rainfall and SST is modeled to get the probability distribution of Inflow in each period (every 15 days). Inflow model which is influenced by climate change, is used for optimization model of reservoir operation pattern with stochastic dynamic program. In this study, 6 optimization scenarios for reservoir operation patterns were made, and the optimization results showed scenario 6, which had the most optimum benefit value, the highest performance in terms of reliability and resilience, in the simulation for the period between 1979-2018.
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Doktor) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0622070002 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kata kunci: Indeks Perubahan Iklim, Inflow yang adaptif, Model Optimalisasi. |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 627 Hydraulic engineering > 627.5 Reclamations, Irrigation, related topics > 627.52 Irrigation |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Magister Teknik Pengairan, Fakultas Teknik |
| Depositing User: | yulia Chasanah |
| Date Deposited: | 19 May 2022 04:06 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Jun 2022 02:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/190618 |
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