Volatilitas Harga Cabai Rawit Di Kabupaten Blitar

Lasitya, Daffa Sandi and Prof. Ir. Ratya Anindita,, MS., Ph.D. and Dr. Ir. Suhartini,, MP. (2021) Volatilitas Harga Cabai Rawit Di Kabupaten Blitar. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.

Abstract

Cabai rawit merupakan salah satu komoditas yang banyak dikonsumsi masyarakat dan memiliki harga fluktuatif pada kelompok subsektor tanaman hortikultura. Selain itu cabai rawit menjadi komoditas yang bernilai ekonomi tinggi dan berperan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia karena memiliki karakteristik yang mudah rusak sehingga fluktuasi harga akan berpengaruh pada penentuan inflasi. Terjadinya perbedaan antara sisi permintaan dan penawaran dapat menjadi penyebab variasi harga, sehingga akan berdampak pada risiko ketidakpastian harga cabai rawit di tingkat produsen maupun konsumen. Fluktuasi harga juga dapat dipicu oleh perubahan penawaran dan permintaan cabai rawit pada periode tertentu. Volatilitas yang tinggi menggambarkan kondisi harga yang cenderung berubah di luar ekspektasi, serta dapat menimbulkan risiko kerugian bagi produsen maupun konsumen dan menimbulkan ketidakpastian harga yang semakin tinggi. Tujuan dari penelitia ini adalah (1) Menganalisis volatilitas yang terjadi pada produksi, konsumsi, serta harga di tingkat produsen dan konsumen cabai rawit di Kabupaten Blitar (2) Menganalisis volatilitas spillover antara produksi, konsumsi, serta harga di tingkat produsen dan konsumen cabai rawit di Kabupaten Blitar. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data time series produksi, konsumsi, dan harga bulanan cabai rawit di Kabupaten Blitar pada tingkat produsen dan konsumen selama periode 2013-2020. Analisis volatilitas dilakukan dengan menggunakan model GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), sedangkan analisis volatilitas spillover dilakukan menggunakan model EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas produksi berada pada kategori ekstrim (extreme volatility), ditunjukkan dengan nilai α + β sebesar 1,35450. Volatilitas konsumsi berada pada kategori rendah (low volatility), ditunjukkan dengan nilai α + β sebesar 0,550363. Volatilitas harga produsen berada pada kategori rendah (low volatility), ditunjukkan dengan nilai α + β sebesar 0,587817. Volatilitas harga konsumen berada pada kategori tinggi (high volatility), ditunjukkan dengan nilai α + β sebesar 0,919028. Volatilitas spillover hanya terjadi antara konsumsi dan harga produsen, karena nilai α + γ = 1,803258 lebih besar daripada α – γ = 0,411946. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas konsumsi akan ditransmisikan pada volatilitas harga produsen. Sedangkan hubungan diantara variabel lain tidak terjadi volatilitas spillover karena masing-masing memiliki nilai α + γ secara absolut lebih kecil daripada α – γ. Sehingga tidak terjadi transmisi volatilitas diantara produksi, konsumsi, dan harga konsumen cabai rawit di Kabupaten Blitar.

English Abstract

Cayenne pepper is one of the commodities that are widely consumed by the community and has a volatile price in the subsector group of horticultural plants. In addition, cayenne pepper becomes a commodity of high economic value and plays an important role in the Indonesian economy because it has perishable characteristics so that price fluctuations will affect the determination of inflation. The difference between the demand and supply side can be the cause of price variation, so it will have an impact on the risk of cayenne pepper price uncertainty at the producer and consumer level. Price fluctuations can also be triggered by changes in supply and demand for cayenne pepper in certain periods. High volatility represents price conditions that tend to change beyond expectations, and can pose a risk of loss to producers and consumers and create heightened price uncertainty. The purpose of this research is (1) Analyzing the volatility that occurs in the production, consumption, and price at the producer and consumer level of cayenne pepper in Blitar (2) Analyzing spillover volatility between production, consumption, and prices at the producer and consumer level of cayenne pepper in Blitar Regency. The research was conducted using time series data on production, consumption, and monthly price of cayenne pepper in Blitar Regency at the producer and consumer level during the period 2013-2020. Volatility analysis is done using GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, while spillover volatility analysis is done using EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model. The results showed that production volatility was in the extreme volatility category, indicated by α + β of 1.35450. Consumption volatility is in the low volatility category, indicated by α + β of 0.550363. Producer price volatility is in the low volatility category, indicated by α + β of 0.587817. Consumer price volatility is in the high volatility category, indicated by α + β of 0.919028. Spillover volatility occurs only between consumption and producer prices, because the value of α + γ = 1.803258 is greater than the α – γ = 0.411946. This indicates that consumption volatility will be transmitted to producer price volatility. While the relationship between other variables does not occur spillover volatility because each has a value of α + γ is absolutely smaller than the α – γ. So there is no transmission of volatility between the production, consumption, and consumer prices of cayenne pepper in Blitar.

Other obstract

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Identification Number:	0521040121
Subjects:	300 Social sciences > 338 Production > 338.1 Agriculture
Divisions:	Fakultas Pertanian > Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian
Depositing User:	Nur Cholis
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2022 02:22
Last Modified:	24 Feb 2022 07:47
URI:	http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/189228

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