Wijaya, Adi and Dr. Ir. Daduk Setyohadi,, MP and Dr. Eng. Abu Bakar Sambah,, S.Pi., MT and Dr. Ir. Umi Zakiyah,, M. Si (2021) Pemodelan Pendugaan Kelimpahan Ikan Lemuru (Sardinella lemuru, Bleeker 1853) di Selat Bali Menggunakan Pendekatan Variasi Iklim dan Dinamika Oseanografi. Doctor thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Selat Bali dengan produktivitas perairan tinggi akibat fenomena upwelling yang terjadi secara musiman. Perairan Selat Bali ditemukan adanya variasi interanual seperti El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi dinamika oseanografi. Variasi musim, ENSO dan IODM mempengaruhi variabilitas oseanografi dan kelimpahan sumberdaya perikanan khususnya ikan lemuru. Kelimpahan dan penyebaran ikan lemuru dipengaruhi dinamika perairan dan variasi iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis variasi iklim terhadap dinamika oseanografi; menentukan parameter utama variasi iklim dan dinamika oseanografi terhadap kelimpahan ikan lemuru; dan menemukan model pendugaan kelimpahan ikan lemuru di Selat Bali. Data penelitian menggunakan data komposit harian menjadi bulanan, data logbook penangkapan ikan lemuru dari pelabuhan perikanan dan hasil survei Balai Riset dan Observasi Laut. Data kondisi perairan diperoleh dari satelit Aqua/Terra MODIS meliputi sea surface chlorophyll (SSC), sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), dan data kedalaman (sea surface depth-SSD) dari GEBCO. Analisis data menggunakan Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), dan Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Hasil analisis EOF menggambarkan variabilitas spasial SST dan PAR mempunyai varian > 80%, secara temporal lebih luas dan kuat pengaruhnya. Parameter SSC, dan POC menunjukkan varian < 80% dan > 50%, menggambarkan variabilitasnya relatif tinggi di sepanjang pantai. Parameter PIC dengan varian < 50% menunjukkan pengaruh yang rendah terhadap dinamika dan variabilitas di perairan Selat Bali. Variasi temporal pada setiap komponen utama dari mode EOF memperlihatkan deret waktu SST, SSC dan POC mengikuti siklus musiman dan IOD, sedangkan PAR dan PIC mengikuti pola ENSO. Korelasi cukup kuat (+) parameter SST, dan kuat (-) parameter SSC dan POC terhadap DMI, sedangkan korelasi kuat (+) parameter PIC dan kuat (-) parameter PAR terhadap ENSO. Komponen utama dinamika oseanografi dan variasi iklim terhadap kelimpahan ikan lemuru menghasilkan 68,21% dari keragaman total. Pembentukan komponen baru menghasilkan pada variabel SST, SSC, POC dan IOD; dan pada variabel PAR dan ENSO yang mempengaruhi kelimpahan ikan lemuru. Model pendugaan kelimpahan ikan lemuru merupakan kombinasi matematik dari parameter PAR, SSD, SST, dan SSC, dari persamaan GAM yang menunjukkan kecocokan 82% dengan lokasi prediksi potensial tangkapan.
English Abstract
Bali Strait with high water productivity due to the upwelling phenomenon that occurs seasonally. In the waters of the Bali Strait, interannual variations such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) are found, which indirectly affect oceanographic dynamics. Seasonal variations, ENSO and IODM affect oceanographic variability and abundance of fishery resources, especially lemuru. The abundance and distribution of lemuru fish are influenced by water dynamics and climate variations. This study aims to analyze climate variations on oceanographic dynamics; determine the main parameters of climate variation and oceanographic dynamics on the abundance of lemuru fish, and find a model for estimating the abundance of lemuru fish in the Bali Strait. The research data use composite data from daily to monthly, logbook data for lemuru fishing from fishing ports and survey results from the Research and Marine Observation Center. Water condition data obtained from the Aqua/Terra MODIS satellite include sea surface chlorophyll (SSC), sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and depth data (sea surface depth-SSD) from GEBCO. Data analysis used Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The results of the EOF analysis describe the spatial variability of SST and PAR having a variance > 80%, temporally wider and having a stronger effect. Parameters SSC, and POC showed variance < 80% and > 50%, reflecting the relatively high variability along the coast. The PIC parameter with <50% variance shows a low influence on the dynamics and variability in the waters of the Bali Strait. Temporal variations in each major component of the EOF mode show that the SST, SSC and POC time series follow seasonal cycles and IOD, while PAR and PIC follow the ENSO pattern. The correlation is quite strong (+) for the SST parameter, and strong (-) for the SSC and POC parameters on DMI, while the correlation is strong (+) for the PIC parameter and strong (-) for the PAR parameter for ENSO. The main components of oceanographic dynamics and climatic variations on the abundance of lemuru fish resulted in 68.21% of the total diversity. The formation of the new component resulted in the 'Indian Ocean Dynamics' component on the variables SST, SSC, POC and IOD; and the 'Pacific Ocean climate variation' component on the PAR and ENSO variables that affect the abundance of lemuru. The lemuru abundance estimation model is a mathematical combination of the PAR, SSD, SST, and SSC parameters, from the GAM equation which shows an 82% match with the predicted potential catch location.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctor) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 0621080005 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Dinamika Oseanografi; Ikan lemuru; Pemodelan; Selat Bali; Variasi Iklim,Bali strait; Climate Variations; Sardine; Modeling; Oceanographic Dynamics. |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 639 Hunting, fishing & conservation |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Doktor Ilmu Perikanan dan Kelautan, Fakultas Perikanan dan Ilmu Kelautan |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Jan 2022 06:51 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Feb 2024 05:11 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/188155 |
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