Amertha, Agus Putradana (2021) Model Arima Intervensi Untuk Menganalisis Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Provinsi Bali. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
"Pariwisata merupakan salah satu sektor penyumbang devisa negara terbesar. Salah satu indikator yang dapat digunakan untuk melihat pertumbuhan pariwisata sebagai penyumbang devisa negara adalah jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara, yang mana merupakan data deret waktu karena jumlahnya berubah-ubah secara fluktuatif dan dipengaruhi banyak faktor seiring berjalannya waktu. Pandemi COVID-19 telah menyebabkan sektor pariwisata, khususnya di Bali mengalami penurunan yang sangat tajam, sehingga diperlukan suatu model yang dapat meramalkan jumlah wisatawan mancanegara akibat kejadian tersebut. Model intervensi adalah pengembangan dari model ARIMA yang mampu menganalisis dampak dari suatu kejadian tak terduga seperti pemogokan, bencana alam, perubahan kebijakan dan lain sebagainya. Jenis dari variabel intervensi dapat berupa fungsi step maupun fungsi pulse. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, diperoleh bahwa pemodelan data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara lebih tepat menggunakan fungsi pulse. Hasil ramalan menunjukkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Provinsi Bali masih berusaha pulih ke kondisi sebelum pandemi dengan laju perlahan. Hal ini berarti diperlukan suatu upaya lebih guna meningkatkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara. Berdasarkan pemeriksaan keakuratan hasil ramalan diperoleh bahwa nilai MAPE lebih dari 20% sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model belum dapat meramalkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Provinsi Bali secara akurat.
English Abstract
Tourism is one of the largest foreign exchange reserves contributors to the country. One indicator that can be used to see the growth of tourism as a contributor to the country's foreign exchange reserves is the number of foreign tourist visits, which is a time series data because the number changes fluctuatively and is affected by many factors over time. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the tourism sector, especially in Bali to experience a very sharp decline, so a model is needed that can predict the number of foreign tourists visits due to this incident. The Intervention Model is a development of the ARIMA model which is able to analyze the impact of an unexpected event such as strikes, natural disasters, policy changes, etc. The types of the intervention variables can be in the form of a step function or a pulse function. Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that the data modeling on the number of foreign tourist visits was more appropriate to use the pulse function. The forecast showed that the number of foreign tourist visits in Bali Province was still trying to recover like before the pandemic at a slow rate. It means more efforts are required to increase foreign tourist visits to Bali Province. Based on the examination of the forecast accuracy, it is found that the MAPE value is more than 20% so that it can be said that the model has not been able to accurately predict the number of foreign tourist visits to Bali Province.
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | 052109 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA, COVID-19, Fungsi pulse, Intervensi, Pandemi", ARIMA, COVID-19, Pulse function, Intervention, Pandemic |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Statistika |
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with username dedyiskandar |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Oct 2021 13:49 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Feb 2022 04:38 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/184059 |
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Text (DALAM MASA EMBARGO)
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