Anggraini, Prety Dian (2019) Perancangan Sistem Informasi Peramalan Permintaan Berbasis Website Pada Ukm Usaha Kreatif Mandiri 99 Jombang. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
UKM Usaha Kreatif Mandiri 99 merupakan salah satu usaha pengolahan pangan di Kabupaten Jombang yang memproduksi beberapa macam produk pangan diantaranya abon lele, tape singkong, dan krupuk samiler (singkong). Selama ini, UKM tersebut masih melakukan rekap data transaksi penjualan secara manual. Hal itu memungkinkan terjadinya kesalahan informasi. Data transaksi penjualan yang dimiliki terbilang cukup banyak namun belum diolah dengan optimal. Selain itu, pemilihan jenis media online yang digunakan sebagai media pemasaran juga terbatas. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan sistem informasi yang dapat mengelola data penjualan dan meramalkan permintaan pada periode selanjutnya serta dapat digunakan sebagai media pemasaran produk. Metode peramalan time series yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dan moving average. Penentuan metode peramalan dilakukan berdasarkan identifikasi pola data penjualan produk yang menunjukkan pola trend. Metode peramalan terbaik dipilih berdasarkan nilai error terkecil dari masing-masing metode peramalan yang digunakan pada sistem informasi. Perancangan sistem informasi peramalan permintaan berbasis website menggunakan metode waterfall yang terdiri dari fase analisis kebutuhan, perancangan, implementasi, dan pengujian sistem. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, metode peramalan time series yang cocok untuk produk abon lele yaitu ARIMA dengan nilai root mean square eror sebesar 3,604. Metode peramalan time series yang cocok untuk produk tape singkong yaitu moving average dengan nilai root mean square eror sebesar 21,2. Metode peramalan time series yang cocok untuk produk krupukviii samiler (singkong) yaitu moving average dengan nilai root mean square eror sebesar 27,02. Pengujian validasi pada semua fitur menunjukkan status valid. Pengujian desain interface memperoleh penilaian baik dengan nilai rata-rata skor semua kriteria sebesar 64,63%.
English Abstract
Usaha Kreatif Mandiri 99 is one of the food processing businesses in Jombang Regency that produces several kinds of food products include catfish abon, cassava tape , and samiler crackers (cassava). For this, that business still using sales data recap by manually. It make to possible giving error information. Besides that, the transaction number that is owned is quite a lot but has not been processed optimally. Therefore, need some of information system that can be professional setting by online for sales data and forecasting about products demand for the next period and can be using for marketing products media. Time series forecasting method in this research is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and moving average. Determination of the forecasting method is based on the identification of product sales data patterns that show a trend pattern. The best forecasting method is chosen based on the smallest error value of each forecasting information based on website that using waterfall method from phase needs anaysis, design, implementation, and testing systems. Based on study, time series forecasting method that is suitable for abon lele products is ARIMA with a root mean error square value is 3,604. The time series forecasting method that is suitable for cassava tape products is the moving average with a root mean error square value is 21,2. Time series forecasting methods that are suitable for samiler crackers (cassava) products are moving averages with root mean square error value is 27,02. Testing validation on all feature indicates is valid. Interface design testing has good score with average value for all criteria is amount 64,63%
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FTP/2019/232/052002057 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average, Peramalan Permintaan, Sistem Informasi, Website, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average, Demand Forecasting, Information system, Website |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 631 Specific techniques; apparatus, equipment materials > 631.3 Tools, machinery, apparatus, equipment / Agricultural engineering > 631.302 85 Computer applications |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian > Teknologi Industri Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | Nur Cholis |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Aug 2020 03:19 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2021 03:06 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/181480 |
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