Sari, Synta Kurnia (2019) Peramalan Konsumsi Air Pdam Di Kota Malang Dengan Hierarchy Time Series Menggunakan Model Fungsi Transfer. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Peramalan deret waktu hirarki adalah sebuah disagregasi peramalan yang memungkinkan peramalan secara bersama-sama pada seluruh level hirarki. Terdapat dua pendekatan peramalan hirarki yang umum digunakan, yakni pendekatan bottom-up dan top-down. Pada penelitian ini digunakan pendekatan bottom-up, top-down proporsi histori dan top-down proporsi peramalan. Peramalan hirarki dapat diterapkan pada berbagai macam model deret waktu. Pada penelitian ini, peneliti menggunakan model fungsi transfer sebagai model peramalan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan konsumsi air PDAM di Kota Malang dan seluruh kecamatan bagiannya menggunakan model fungsi transfer serta mengetahui hasil peramalan konsumsi air PDAM menggunakan metode peramalan hirarki. Data konsumsi air PDAM Kota Malang merupakan data hirarki yang didasarkan pada disagregasi wilayah. Data tersebut terbagi menjadi dua level, yaitu level nol (data konsumsi air PDAM di Kota Malang) dan level satu (data konsumsi air PDAM di lima Kecamatan). Model fungsi transfer (
English Abstract
Forecasting in time series hierarchy is a forecasting disaggregation which allows to forecast simultaneusly at all levels of the hierarchy. There are two commonly approach used hierarchical forecasting, namely bottom-up and top-down approaches. In this study use the bottom-up approach, top-down historical proportions and top-down forecast proportions. Hierarchy forecasting can be applied in various types of time series models. In this study, transfer function model is used as the forecasting model. This study aims to model PDAM water consumption in Malang City and all sub-districts using the transfer function model and knowing the results of PDAM water consumption forecasting using hierarchical forecasting methods.The Malang PDAM water consumption data is hierarchical data based on regional disaggregation. The data is divided into two levels, namely zero level (PDAM water consumption data in Malang) and level one (PDAM water consumption data in five districts). The best model of transfer function (
Other obstract
-
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/MIPA/2019/158/051910861 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | PDAM Kota Malang, Fungsi Transfer, top-down, bottom-up, Malang City PDAM, Transfer Function, Top-Down, Bottom-up |
| Subjects: | 500 Natural sciences and mathematics > 519 Probabilities and applied mathematics > 519.5 Statistical mathematics > 519.55 Time-series analysis |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Statistika |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Aug 2020 06:40 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Aug 2020 06:40 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/178580 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |