Sukmisari, Sasgia (2019) Penerapan Model Armax Variasi Liburan Dan Perdagangan Pada Banyaknya Transaksi Di Coffee Shop X Jakarta. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Meningkatnya minat pelanggan terhadap kopi belakangan ini menyebabkan menjamurnya coffee shop di kota-kota besar termasuk Kota Jakarta. Adanya perbedaan sistem penanggalan pada kalender Hijriyah dan Masehi menyebabkan pergeseran waktu perayaan hari-hari besar setiap tahunnya sehingga dapat menyebabkan adanya efek variasi liburan pada banyaknya transaksi di sebuah coffee shop. Selain itu, panjang bulan dan banyaknya jenis hari yang berbeda di setiap bulan juga dapat menyebabkan adanya efek variasi perdagangan. Pada penelitian ini, dianalisis efek dari kedua variasi tersebut terhadap banyaknya transaksi di salah satu coffee shop di Jakarta dengan model ARMAX. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa banyaknya transaksi di coffee shop X Jakarta dipengaruhi oleh waktu, variasi liburan, dan panjang bulan. Sementara itu, efek variasi perdagangan didapatkan tidak berpengaruh signifikan secara statistika. Namun, variasi ini tetap dimodelkan dengan pertimbangan bahwa banyaknya transaksi berdasarkan panjang bulan dan banyaknya jenis hari terlihat berbeda secara deskriptif dan nilai keakuratan model (R2) meningkat dengan adanya efek variasi perdagangan dalam model. Berdasarkan uraian tersebut, model yang dapat menggambarkan banyaknya transaksi di coffee shop X Jakarta adalah model ARMAX variasi liburan dan perdagangan dengan R2 sebesar 99,72%.
English Abstract
The increasement of customer’s interest into coffee these days has lead to growth in business of coffee shop in some big cities, including Jakarta. The difference of calendar system between Hijriyah and Masehi has caused the difference of big day celebration annually, so that the holiday variation may effect the transaction in some coffee shops. Beside of that, the number of days and number of each type of days every month may cause the possibility of trading day variation. This research analyze the effect of both holiday and trading day variation on transaction at one of coffee shop in Jakarta which is calculated by the number of transaction happens in the coffee shop with ARMAX model. The result of this research shows that the transaction in coffee shop X Jakarta effected by time, holiday variation, and number of days every month. Meanwhile, the effect of trading day variation is insignificant statistically. Despite of the insignificant of trading day variation effect, the variation still be included in the model with the number of transaction every month is different descriptively and value of model accuracy (R2) increasing along with the addition of trading day variation into the model under consideration. Based on that explanation, the model which fits the number of transaction at coffee shop X Jakarta is ARMAX model with holiday and trading day variation with R2 as much as 99,72%.
Other obstract
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| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/MIPA/2019/96/051910799 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Coffee shop, ARMAX, Variasi liburan, Variasi perdagangan, Coffee shop, ARMAX, Holiday variation, Trading day variation |
| Subjects: | 500 Natural sciences and mathematics > 519 Probabilities and applied mathematics > 519.5 Statistical mathematics > 519.55 Time-series analysis |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Statistika |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2020 04:42 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Oct 2021 02:34 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/176905 |
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