Purnamasari, Ragil (2016) Improving Accuracy Of Preliminary Cost Estimation Using Support Vector Regression. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Preliminary cost estimation is an important stage for construction projects. During stage, any contractor and owner is able to determine whe r his/her project is feasible. A typical preliminary cost estimation for a building construction project in Indonesia may take weeks and have an error rate varying from -12.97% to +26.80%. Previous studies also concluded that 74% of cost overruns are caused due to underestimation. research objectives, refore, are (1) to determine factors that influence cost estimation in Indonesia and (2) to develop a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model in an attempt to improve accuracy and to reduce workhours for preliminary cost estimation. Literature review identified 14 factors that influence cost estimation most for all types of construction projects around world. Considering se factors as model bases, data collection randomly ga red 104 building cases in Indonesia containing valid information for proposed model. SVR model with radial basis function kernel was established after data trimming, analysis, and normalization. model n was evaluated and implemented using 5-folds cross validation and yielded average accuracy at 95.79% for preliminary cost estimation of building construction projects. accuracy has been improved 8.71% between original data and results from SVR model. Time spent for conducting such a preliminary cost estimation has been significantly reduced from weeks by human estimators to less than one second by model. SVR model is efficient in both accuracy and time-saving.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Magister) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | TES/657.869/PUR/i/2016/041601996 |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 657 Accounting > 657.8 Accounting for enterprises engaged in specific kinds of activities |
| Depositing User: | Nur Cholis |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Apr 2016 10:52 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Apr 2016 10:52 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/159262 |
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