Setyawati, IntanKartika (2013) The Study Of Supply And Foreign Demand For Indonesia's Natural Rubber. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Karet alam merupakan komoditas yang memberikan kontribusi terhadap devisa negara dan memiliki prospek ekonomi yang cukup baik karena mampu bertahan selama krisis ekonomi yang melanda Indonesia. Dalam konteks perkembangan ekspor dunia terlihat bahwa ekspor karet dunia mengalami pertumbuhan setiap tahunnya. Karet merupakan polimer hidrokarbon dari emulsi latex yang diperoleh dari sayatan pohon karet dan diambil getahnya akan tetapi karet juga dapat diproduksi secara sintetik atau buatan. Sumber utama karet berasal dari pohon Hevea brasiliensis (Euphorbiaceae) yang banyak diproduksi di Jawa Barat, Sumatra dan Kalimantan. Pada penelitian ini menganalisis tren perdagangan karet antara Indonesia dan negara-negara importir utama seperti Amerika Serikat dan China, dan pesaing utama adalah Thailand sebagai pembanding. Menganalisis permintaan ekspor dan impor serta penawaran ekspor dan impor dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dan jenis data time series dengan data tahunan 1990-2010. Sumber data berasal dari berbagai sumber yaitu seperti Direktorat Jenderal Pertanian, Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), United Nation Comtrade (UNComtrade),Food and AgriculturalOrganization Statistic (FAOSTAT) dan World Bank. Untuk menjawab tujuan kedua pada penelitian ini digunakan pendekatan kointegrasi. Model arus perdagangan karet alam antara negara-negara pengekspor utama yaitu Indonesia dan Thailand dengan negara-negara pengimpor utama yaitu Amerika Serikat dan China disusun dalam persamaan tunggal dengan Constant Elasticity of Substitution diadaptasi dari persamaan Armington dalam penelitian oleh Niemi (2003). Persamaan model dibagi menjadi empat kelompok permintaan impor, permintaan ekspor, penawaran impor, danpenawaran ekspor. Persamaan dilinierkan dalam bentuk logaritma. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, ekspor karet alam dunia dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir secara umum cenderung meningkat. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada kuantitas produksi karet alam. Faktor dominan yang mempengaruhi permintaan impor karet alam di Amerika Serikat adalah produk domestik bruto dengan respon yang elastis, dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang dengan kecepatan dari koefisien penyesuaian yang relatif besar. Sementara jumlah impor tidak responsif terhadap perubahan harga riil impor AS dari karet alam. Permintaan impor karet alam di China tidak responsif terhadap harga relatif dan produk domestik bruto dalam jangka pendek. Elastisitas pendapatan lebih besar dari elastisitas harga, kondisi ini menunjukkan bahwa dampak dalam perubahan pendapatan akan lebih besar dari perubahan harga impor. Elastisitas harga ekspor karet alam Indonesia lebih besar dari Thailand untuk Amerika Serikat. Pasar menunjukkan dominasi ekspor karet alam Indonesia di pasar Amerika Serikat. Sementara itu, dominasi ekspor karet alam Thailand adalah di pasar Cina karena elastisitas lebih besar daripada di Indonesia. Kesimpulan yang dapat ditarik pada penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut bahwa pasar utama dari karet alam Indonesia adalah Amerika serikat dan untuk karet alam Thailan lebih condong pada pasar dari negara Cina. Hal ini disebabkan kebutuhan akan jenis karet yang sesuai dengan negara pengimpor dengan negara pengekspor. Kemudian elastisitas jangka panjang tidak elastis jika dibandingkan dengan elastisitas jangka pendek hal ini disebabkan terjadinya perubahan kebijakan mengenai harga karet yang cenderung fluktuatif setiap tahunnya. Saran dari penelitian ini yaitu Indonesia seharusnya dapat meningkatkan produktivitas karet karena Indonesia memiliki kualitas karet alam yang baik dan terdapat peluang yang masih terbuka lebar untuk pasar Cina sedangkan untuk pasar Amerika Indonesia perlu mempertahankan kualiats sesuai dengan apa yang diinginkan. Perlu dilakukan pengelompokan jenis karet dalam penelitian selanjutnya karena pada penelitian ini hanya meneliti jenis karet secara umum saja.
English Abstract
Natural rubber is a commodity that contributes to foreign exchange countries and has a pretty good economic prospects for being able to survive during the economic crisis that hit Indonesia. In the context of development of world exports is seen that the world rubber exports had growth each year. This study examine the trend of rubber trade between Indonesia and the major importer countries such as United States and China, and the main competitor is Thailand as comparison. Analysing the relationship between short run and long run supply and demand of export and import Indonesian natural rubber and the response to the income changing in importer country. This research was used secondary data and the kind of the data is time series annual data from 1990 to 2010. The source of the data was a variaty of publications, such as Directorate General of Agriculture, Ministry of Industry and Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nation Comtrade (UNComtrade), Food and Agricultural Organization Statistic (FAOSTAT) and World Bank. To answer the second objective cointegration approach has used in this study. Models of natural rubber trade flows between major exporting countries Indonesia and Thailand are the main importing countries are the United States and China are arranged in a single equation with the form constant elasticity of substitution is adapted from the equation in the study by Niemi (2003). The model equations are divided into four groups import demand, export demand, supply imports, and export supply. The equation is lineared by logarithm form. According to the result, the worlds natural rubber export in the last ten years in general tends to increase. The same thing also happened on the quantity production of natural rubber. Dominant factor which influencing import demand of natural rubber in the USA is gross domestic product with the response which elastic, within short-run nor the long term with the speed from coefficients adjustment which relatively large. While the quantity of imports is not responsive to the changes in the real price of U.S. imports of natural rubber. Import demand of natural rubber in China was not responsive toward relative price and gross domestic product in the short-run. Income elasticity is greater than price elasticity, this condition indicate that the impact in the income change will be greater than price import change. Price elasticity of Indonesias natural rubber exports greater than Thailand for the USA. Market shows the dominance of Indonesias natural rubber exports in the USA market. Meanwhile, Thailands natural rubber export dominance is in the China market due to its elasticity greater than in Indonesia. The conclusion of this result such as the worlds natural rubber exports in the last ten years in general tends to increase. The same thing also happened on the quantity production of natural rubber. Export and production of natural rubber in the world is still dominated by Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Indonesias natural rubber trade to the USA and China showed an increasing trend. The import demand of natural rubber from the USA has the increasing trend. The USA is the greatest importer of Indonesian natural rubber. The unexpected one is China, since this country expand their economic growth the import demand for Indonesian natural rubber was increase. China is one of natural rubber producer but the production cannot meet the consumption so China export their natural rubber needs. The dominant factor of Thailand natural rubber market is China because what China needed is the product from Thailand such as the type of natural rubber is Ribbed Smoked Sheed (RSS). The factor which influencing import demand of natural rubber in the USA is gross domestic product with the response which elastic, within short-run nor the long term with the speed from coefficients adjustment which relatively large. While the quantity of imports is not responsive to the changes in the real price of U.S. imports of natural rubber. Import demand of natural rubber in China was not responsive toward relative price and gross domestic product in the short-run. Income elasticity is greater than price elasticity, this condition indicate that the impact in the income change will be greater than price import change. Price elasticity of Indonesias natural rubber exports greater than Thailand for the USA. market shows the dominance of Indonesias natural rubber exports in the USA market. Meanwhile, Thailands natural rubber export dominance is in the China market due to its elasticity greater than in Indonesia. In general, the value of natural rubber export price elasticity is inelastic in the short run and elastic in the long term that indicates that the commodity is a product of natural rubber tree plantation. Commodities requires a longer time in the production process of planting until the plants can produce so that ongoing work being done to increase the quantity of exports by increasing production in the short term is difficult but possible in the long term This study has severalsuggestion that might be useful: Indonesia should increase their productivity because the natural rubber market still open and have good demand. China can be the next target for Indonesia`s natural rubber because the trend increasing every year and China also has a great industry that use natural rubber as the raw material. This study did not differentiate on the basis of quality natural rubber. Need conducted research on the basis of quality natural rubber that is specific to know the type that potentially developed quality rubber.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Magister) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | TES/338.173.895/SET/S/041401285 |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 338 Production > 338.1 Agriculture |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Magister Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | Hasbi |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Apr 2014 11:48 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Apr 2014 11:48 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/155981 |
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