Aprilia, Anisa (2012) Threshold Cointegration of Corn Market in Indonesia. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Hubungan antara harga di tingkat petani dan retail sudah menjadi topic pada penelitian-penelitian yang bertujuan untuk menganalisis mengapa marjin pemasaran untuk produk pertanian bervariasi dari waktu ke waktu. Berbagai sumber yang berkaitan menyatakan bahwa harga retail menyesuaikan perubahan pada harga di tingkat petani dan sebaliknya, hal tersebut telah dianalisis dari berbagai sudut pandang. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menginvestigasi hubungan dan struktur antara harga pasar jagung di tingkat petani dan retail di Indonesia. Penelitian ini mengembangkan dan menguji Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) dua regim dengan satu vector kointegrasi dan threshold parameter yang didasarkan pada error correction term. Penelitian ini menggunakan 348 data bulanan harga jagung di tingkat petani dan retail pada periode Januari 1993 sampai Desember 2011. Hasil empiris mengindikasikan bahwa TVECM dengan dua regim merupakan pendekatan yang lebih baik untuk mendeskripsikan hubungan antara harga pasar jagung di tingkat petani dan retail di Indonesia. Hubungan kointegrasi diekspektasikan ketika keseimbangan menurun lebih dari 20.8% atau equilibrium relative markup lebih dari 42.69%. Dalam hal ini, harga retail jagung meningkat lebih cepat daripada harga jagung di tingkat petani untuk mengembalikan kesimbangan jangka panjang antara harga jagung di tingkat petani dan retail. Hasil penelitian penyesuaian asimetris harga pada penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa relative markup lebih dari 42.69%, hal tersebut akan menguntungkan retailer atau industri makanan dan pakan ternak, tetapi di sisi lain akan merugikan petani dan konsumen jagung. Hasil statistik menunjukkan kekuatan pasar sektor industri makanan dan pakan ternak serta retail telah eksis pada industri jagung di Indonesia.
English Abstract
The relationship between farm and retail prices has been the themes of many researches that intend to perceive why the marketing margins for agricultural products varied over time. Sources of differences and their connections, that the retail price adjust to a change in farm price and vice versa, have been analyzed from different analytical views. The objectives of this research are to investigate the relationship and their structure between farmgate and retail prices of corn market in Indonesia. A two-regime Threshold Vector Correction Model (TVECM) with one cointegration vector and a threshold parameter based on the error correction term were developed and tested. 348 monthly data from January 1983 to December 2011 on farmer received prices and retail prices for corn were used in our research. The empirical finding indicates that a 2-regimes threshold cointegration model (TVECM) seems to better describe the relationship between farmgate and retail prices of the Indonesia corn market retail price. Furthermore, a cointegration relationship is expected when equilibrium is decreased more than 20.8% or the equilibrium relative markup is squeezed more than 42.69 %. In this case, retail prices have to increase faster than farmer received prices to restore the long-run equilibrium between farmer-retailer corn prices. The finding of the asymmetric price adjustment in this article is relative markups higher than 42.69%, it seems to favor the retailers/manufacturers in food and feed industries, but may hurt the both sides on corn farmers and consumers. Statistical results support the market power of the food and feed and retail sectors existed in corn industry of Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Magister) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | TES/330.015 195/APR/t/041300008 |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Magister Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian |
| Depositing User: | Endro Setyobudi |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Mar 2013 10:56 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Mar 2022 03:43 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/155614 |
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