Trianandi, Yulia (2018) Prediksi Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Adaptive-Expectation Based Multi-Attribute Fuzzy Time Series. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Prediksi curah hujan sangat dibutuhkan dalam meningkatkan hasil produksi tanaman pangan pada suatu wilayah, salah satunya pada area Tengger. Kesalahan dalam memprediksi curah hujan dapat mengakibatkan kesalahan saat menentukan masa tanam, dan jenis tanaman yang tepat. Agar menghasilkan prediksi curah hujan dengan tingkat kesalahan sedikit, penelitian ini menggunakan metode Adaptive-Expectation Based Multi-Attribute Fuzzy Time Series. Metode tersebut telah terbukti mampu memprediksi closing price pada Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAEIX) dengan tingkat kesalahan lebih sedikit dibandingkan metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen. Penelitian ini akan menghasilkan prediksi curah hujan di empat kecamatan area Tengger yaitu Puspo, Sumber, Tosari, dan Tutur. Dari hasil pengujian 36 data pada tahun 2014, didapatkan nilai Mean Square Error (MSE) terbaik senilai 28,0470 pada kecamatan Tosari.
English Abstract
Prediction of rainfall is needed in increasing the production of food crops in a region, one of them is Tengger area. Errors in predicting rainfall can cause errors when determining the planting period, and the right type of plant. In order to produce rainfall predictions with a slight error rate, this study uses the Adaptive- Expectation Based Multi-Attribute Fuzzy Time Series method. The method has been proven to predict the closing price on the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAEIX) with fewer error rates than Chen Fuzzy Time Series methods. This study will produce rainfall predictions in the four districts of Tengger area, namely Puspo, Sumber, Tosari, and Tutur. From the results of testing 36 data in 2014, obtained the best Mean Square Error (MSE) value of 28.0470 in Tosari district.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Sarjana) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | SKR/FTIK/2018/707/051808620 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | prediksi, curah hujan, fuzzy time series, adaptive expectation forecasting, rainfall, fuzzy time series, adaptive expectation |
| Subjects: | 500 Natural sciences and mathematics > 551 Geology, hydrology, meteorology > 551.5 Meteorology > 551.57 Hydrometeorology > 551.577 Precipitation |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Teknik Informatika |
| Depositing User: | Budi Wahyono Wahyono |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Feb 2019 03:11 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Oct 2021 02:39 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/14104 |
Preview |
Text
Yulia Trianandi.pdf Download (2MB) | Preview |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |