Hakim, Rachman (2013) Kredibilitas Bank Sentral dan Persistensi Inflasi di Indonesia. Magister thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.
Abstract
Tulisan ini ingin meneliti tentang persistensi inflasi di Indonesia. Nilai persistensi akan dihitung dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive (AR). Selama tahun 2000-2012 diperkirakan terjadi structural break ketika bank sentral mulai beralih dari kerangka kebijakan inflation targeting lite menjadi full-fledged inflation targeting pada tahun 2005, hal tersebut memang terbukti berdasarkan chow test . Sehingga penghitungan nilai persistensi akan dilakukan pada dua periode, yaitu 2000:1-2005:4 ( inflation targeting lite ) dan 2006:1-2012:3 ( full-fledged inflation targeting ). Setelah nilai persistensi inflasi dihitung, akan diteliti apakah kredibilitas bank sentral memiliki pengaruh terhadap persistensi inflasi. Variabel kredibilitas ini akan dimasukkan dalam model New Keynesian Phillips Curve Hybrid . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persistensi inflasi selama periode full-fledged inflation targeting lebih rendah jika dibandingkan dengan periode inflation targeting lite . Hal ini disebabkan meningkatnya kredibilitas bank sentral pada periode tersebut.
English Abstract
This paper would like to examine the persistence of inflation in Indonesia. Persistence value will be determined using the Autoregressive (AR). During the years 2000-2012 estimated structural break occurs when the central bank began to shift from the policy framework of inflation targeting lite into a full-fledged inflation targeting in 2005, it was proved by chow test. Thus calculating the value of persistence will be conducted at two periods, namely 2000:1-2005:4 (inflation targeting lite) and 2006:1-2012:3 (full-fledged inflation targeting). Having calculated the value of the persistence of inflation, will be investigated whether the credibility of the central bank has an influence on the persistence of inflation. The credibility variable will be included in the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve model. The results showed that persistence of inflation during the period of full-fledged inflation targeting lower when compared with the period of inflation targeting lite. This is due to the increased credibility of central bank in the period.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Magister) |
|---|---|
| Identification Number: | TES/332.41/HAK/k/041308322 |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 332 Financial economics > 332.4 Money |
| Divisions: | S2/S3 > Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis |
| Depositing User: | Endro Setyobudi |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Feb 2014 09:21 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Feb 2014 09:21 |
| URI: | http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/155734 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |