Prediksi Kebangkrutan Berdasarkan Analisis Z-Score Altman (Studi pada Kelompok Perusahaan Textile and Garment yang Terdaftar di BEI Selama Tahun 2008-2012),

Kartikasari, Fitria (2014) Prediksi Kebangkrutan Berdasarkan Analisis Z-Score Altman (Studi pada Kelompok Perusahaan Textile and Garment yang Terdaftar di BEI Selama Tahun 2008-2012),. Sarjana thesis, Universitas Brawijaya.

Abstract

Penelitian ini dilakukan atas dasar banyaknya produk tekstil impor di pasar domestik sehingga produk dari dalam negeri menjadi kalah bersaing. Hal ini dikarenakan harga produk impor lebih murah. Krisis ekonomi global memperburuk kinerja perdagangan nasional. Hal itu juga membuat harga bahan baku kapas dunia menjadi naik, sehingga biaya operasional perusahaan menjadi bertambah. Ditambah dengan sewa tempat dan pajak yang tinggi, serta kenaikan UMP dan TDL membuat produsen banyak yang gulung tikar, walaupun ada yang masih bertahan. Bagaimana analisis Z-Score Altman dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan kelompok perusahaan textile and garment yang terdaftar di BEI selama periode tahun 2008-2012. Z-score Altman dapat memprediksi sampai dua tahun sebelum perusahaan benar-benar mengalami kebangkrutan. Z-Score Altman menggunakan lima rasio dalam memprediksi, yaitu modal kerja terhadap total aktiva, laba ditahan terhadap total aktiva, laba usaha terhadap total aktiva, nilai pasar saham terhadap total hutang, dan penjualan terhadap total aktiva. Jika hasil Z-Score berada di bawah titik cut-off maka perusahaan diprediksi berada pada kondisi bangkrut. Jika hasil Z-Score berada di antara titik cut-off perusahaan diprediksi berada pada kondisi rawan bangkrut. Sedangkan jika hasil Z-Score berada di atas titik cut-off perusahaan diprediksi berada pada kondisi sehat. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan data keuangan perusahaan dengan pendekatan analisis Z-Score terdapat tujuh perusahaan dari delapan perusahaan sampel yang diprediksi memiliki potensi kebangkrutan apabila tidak ada kemajuan dalam posisi keuangannya dan tidak adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mendukung. Perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut adalah PT. Apac Citra Centertex, Tbk, PT. Argo Pantes, Tbk, PT. Eratex Djaja, Tbk, PT. Nusantara Inti Corpora, Tbk, PT. Panasia Indosyntec, Tbk, PT. Ricky Putra Globalindo, Tbk, dan PT. Sunson Textile Manufacturer, Tbk. Hanya ada satu perusahaan saja yang kondisinya baik, yaitu PT. Pan Brothers Tex, Tbk. Selama empat tahun penelitian, yaitu tahun 2008, 2009, 2010, dan 2012, perusahaan diprediksi selalu berada d alam kondisi rawan dan sempat berada pada kondisi sehat di tahun 2011.

English Abstract

The research was conducted on the basis of the number of imported textile products in the domestic market so that the product of the domestic becomes less competitive. It was caused of the price of imported products cheaper. The global economic crisis worsen the performance of national trade. It also makes the world cotton price of raw materials rises, so the companys operating costs increased. Beside that the rent, high taxes, and an increasing of salary and electricity makes a lot of producers out of business, even though there were still survive. How Altman Z-Score’s analysis to predict bankruptcy of textile and garment companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2008-2012. Altman’s Z-score can predict up to two years before the company actually filed for bankruptcy. Altman’s Z-Score uses five ratio in predicting, i.e. net working capital to total assets, retained earnings to total assets, earning before interest and tax to total assets, market value of equity to total debt, and sales to total assets. If the Z-Score is below the cut-off point then the company predicted on condition of bankrupt. If the Z-Score is between the cut-off point of the company predicted on condition of cartilage broke. Whereas if the Z-Score is above the cut-off point for the company predicted a healthy condition. The result of the research shows that based on financial data company with the approach of Z-Score’s analysis there were seven company of eight companies samples predicted has the potential bankruptcy if there is no progress in its financial potition and there is no government policy that support. The companies are PT. Apac Citra Centertex, Tbk, PT. Argo Pantes, Tbk, PT. Eratex Djaja, Tbk, PT. Nusantara Inti Corpora, Tbk, PT. Panasia Indosyntec, Tbk, PT. Ricky Putra Globalindo, Tbk, and PT. Sunson Textile Manufacturer, Tbk. There is only one company whose condition is good, namely PT. Pan Brothers Tex, Tbk. During the four years of research, that is 2008, 2009, 2010, and 201, the company predicted always in a vulnerable condition and in healthy condition in 2011.

Item Type: Thesis (Sarjana)
Identification Number: SKR/FIA/2014/126/051402534
Subjects: 600 Technology (Applied sciences) > 658 General management
Divisions: Fakultas Ilmu Administrasi > Ilmu Administrasi Bisnis / Niaga
Depositing User: Budi Wahyono Wahyono
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2014 07:21
Last Modified: 22 Oct 2021 07:06
URI: http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/116207
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